The EU awaits a Turkish quake

Last week in Brussels, we discussed these issues with EU Commission officials and the EU Commissioner for Enlargement Guenter Verheugen.

All mentioned the same date for the start of negotiations, between July and September 2005.

Actually, the real problems will start after this date, or in other words, when the negotiations start.

The Republic of Turkey will take its most important step in history and will resolve its identity problem. It will become a first-tier country. The vision of the Turkish people will change. Our past hang-ups will disappear. We will no longer yell, "Europe, hear our voice." We will also be on the same train with the rest.

The Republic of Turkey will enter a new era, and it will feel like an earthquake.

Yes, but what will happen in Europe?

The quake will be felt in Europe
It is already being felt. For the EU, Turkey’s admission will be like an even larger quake. If Turkey feels a quake at 5 on the Richter scale, Europe will be hit by one measuring seven.

Verheugen made a very interesting point about this matter.

"Turkey’s admission will change and influence everything in the EU."

Turkey is so large that it will definitely rattle everything.

The number of commission members will change.

The structure of the European Parliament will change.

Turkey’s influence in the decision-making process will increase greatly.

Turkey will change with EU membership, but it will be the EU that will experience the biggest transformation. That’s why resistance and fears continue.

Three different reports on Turkey being prepared
The summit in December will be all about Turkey.

As Europe opens its doors to Turkey, it will be forced to implement its own reforms.

In this context, the EU Commission will prepare three different reports on Turkey.

1. The Progress Report
This report will assess Turkey’s efforts to fulfill the Copenhagen criteria and the way the new laws are being implemented.

Turkey doesn’t need to fully satisfy all the criteria. No candidate was asked this. What is important is for the candidate to fulfill a portion that will allow the start of negotiations.

The commission will assess that.

After the negotiations start, the commission will continue to prepare annual progress reports. The rest of the criteria and the practice on the ground will be continued to be examined.

2. The Initial Effect Assessment Report
This report was prepared for all candidates, apart from Cyprus and Malta. Its purpose will be to assess what effects Turkey’s membership will have on the EU.

Its effects on institutions, voting procedures and general policies will be examined.

If we say that this report will explain the effects of the quake that Turkey’s admission will produce, we will not be too far from the truth.

3. The Strategy Report
There will also be a strategy report.

After assessing Turkey’s state (Progress Report) and its potential influence (Initial Effect Assessment Report), this report will outline the strategy that will have to be followed for Turkey.

The EU Commission will make certain recommendations to heads of states and governments of EU member countries.

The issues involved will include the start of negotiations and related matters.

The final say belongs to heads of states and governments.

They have the power to reject, approve or alter the commission’s recommendations.

The current situation is that only Austria among the member countries object to the start of negotiations with Turkey, while others, despite their reservations, believe Turkey’s application cannot be rejected.

That’s why the commission report is crucial.

The outlines of the report are already known.

It will be released in mid-October, but the main point has already been prepared.

The reports compiled by the commission itself, information pouring in from the capitals of 25 member countries and reports from nongovernmental organizations will be used to prepare the final report.

Verheugen takes a stand
Turkey, for Verheugen, has turned into the historic mission of his term in office.

Verheugen, who is considered the author of the project of democratization of Turkey, is doing everything he can to avoid any last minute problems.

Turkey is very fortunate to have a person like him to oversee this report.