Talking ‘German’: Schroeder versus Merkel/Stoiber

The significance of Schroeder’s visit is multifold. His is the first visit of its kind by a German chancellor in 11 years. Ankara has not hosted a German chancellor since Helmut Kohl’s visit in 1993.

The flurry of German politicians visiting Turkey, while reflecting Turkey’s determination in knocking on the doors of the EU to get a date to start accession negotiations at the end of 2004, it is also a reflection of the interplay of German domestic politics.

Turkey seems to occupy a "special place" in the intense domestic power politics between the two main political blocs in Germany, the social democrats and the conservatives, i.e., the CDU and its Bavarian partner, the CSU. Merkel’s offer to accord Turkey a "special status" in the EU to dissuade Ankara from seeking EU membership fell on deaf ears in Turkey’s capital. Turkish public opinion went further, making fun of Merkel’s lack of knowledge of Turkey’s realities. It was sarcastically reported in the Turkish press that while in Ankara, she had asked the proximity of Anatolia to Ankara.

Nonetheless, her fellow conservative leader, Bavarian Governor Edmund Stoiber, who challenged Schroeder in the 2002 elections, made a categorical remark to Suddeutsche Zeitung on the eve of the German chancellor’s visit to Turkey, saying: "We have to decide. If we admit Turkey, that will end the vision of European political union. Then Europe will be a free-trade zone with no political power."

Schoeder retorted from Ankara, "You are making policy on the backs of 2.5 million Turks resident in Germany and thus poisoning the political atmosphere in Germany." He added, "A firm partnership based on confidence is what shapes the German-Turkish relationship, and the Turkish government’s reform policy contributes to this as well."

Schroeder made additional encouraging remarks in his subsequent statement: "Turkey has been closely connected to the EU for more than 40 years. At the end of this year, the heads of state and government of the EU will decide whether or not to start accession talks with Turkey. Turkey has made important efforts to meet the required criteria for this." At this point comes the crucial importance of a Cyprus settlement before May 1, when Cyprus is set to join the EU. For Schroeder, "The Turkish government’s attitude will play a major role in that."

The irony of the situation is that while Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) wants to join the conservative bloc within the European Parliament and is looking for assistance from German conservatives who are adamantly against Turkey’s EU bid, it is receiving a helping hand from the German social democrats. Their counterparts in Turkey, the so-called social democrat Republican People’s Party (CHP), with its nationalist-isolationist, therefore rejectionist and negative stand concerning a Cyprus settlement, which is definitely connected to Turkey’s EU bid, are natural allies for Merkel and Stoiber.

Schr”der reassures Turkey that Germany will keep its promise at the end of the year in supporting that a date for starting the accession negotiations to be given to Ankara, if the reformist trend of the AKP government persists and the implementation of the reforms is achieved.

With the momentum that the AKP government rides upon, there is no slightest doubt that Turkey cannot attain its objectives at the end of 2004. One has never forget the NATO Summit in Istanbul scheduled by the end of June will be a milestone in repairing the Euro-Atlantic rift and will reshape the Transatlantic relationship. It will signify that a bonus to be given to Turkey which will anchor it firmly furthermore within the Western system.

That is why the sober and optimistic prospects prevail for the resolution of the Cyprus issue, despite the foot- dragging methods, seemingly, employed by both of the Cypriot parties. When Turkey and Greece will be included directly to the process by March 22 in New York (and in a Dayton or Camp David format), the motion towards an ultimate settlement will be unstoppable.

At this juncture, what is needed for Turkey is to get iron-clad guarantees from a major power that its forthcoming attitude will not remain unrewarded. This, exactly, the significance of German chancellor Schr”der’s visit with his encouraging remarks to Turkey.

The requirements of the reconstruction of Euro-Atlantic relationship including a robust Turkey, both politically and economically, are much more determinant than German conservatives or Turkish so-called social democrats to thwart them.

The clue is Schr”der’s presence along with the CEO’s of Siemens, Mann, BASF, Oetker, Thyssen etc. in Turkey and his remarks for Turkey’s bid for the EU.