Turkiye’s central bank governor Sahap Kavcioglu at his office in Ankara (file). Presenting a quarterly economic report yesterday, Kavcioglu stood by previous year-end annual inflation forecasts for 2023 and 2024 of 22.3% and 8.8% respectively.
Turkiye’s central bank stuck to its forecasts for a sharp drop in inflation on Thursday, saying the increasing predictability of the lira’s exchange rate plus financing support meant there was no longer the basis for large price rises.
Presenting a quarterly economic report, the bank’s governor Sahap Kavcioglu stood by previous year-end annual inflation forecasts for 2023 and 2024 of 22.3% and 8.8% respectively.
While most mainstream economists expect Turkiye’s inflation, which hit a 24-year high of 85% back in October and was 65% in December, to continue to cool in the coming months, they see it staying well above the central bank’s projections.
The median estimate for inflation at end-2023 in the latest Reuters poll was 42.5%, for example, and 26.4% for 2024.
Kavcioglu, who has slashed interest rates from 19% to 9% over the last year, said data were confirming the slowdown and monthly rates were getting closer to historical averages too.
Pricing behaviour should follow, he added.
“In an environment where cost shocks are fully reflected, predictability has increased in exchange rates, company profitability has improved and financing costs are supported, there is no basis for the continuation of high price increases,” he said.
The central bank’s forecasts also show oil prices at $80.8 in 2023, slightly above its $79.3 forecast three months ago.
“The fact they are continuing to show confidence that inflation will fall sharply does not surprise me,” said Cristian Maggio Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TD Securities in London.
“They are not trying to achieve their inflation target; they are trying to keep the lira stable and keep growth as buoyant as possible ahead of the elections in May,” he said, noting the bank’s 9% interest rate was still 55% below the current annual inflation rate.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signalled last week that Turkiye will hold elections on May 14, a month earlier than he had earlier flagged.
Turkiye’s central bank governor Sahap Kavcioglu at his office in Ankara (file). Presenting a quarterly economic report yesterday, Kavcioglu stood
Read moreTurkey Visa For Dominica Republic, Haiti, Grenadian and Fiji Marketscreener.com Source link
Read moreAttention all passengers to Türkiye : All vaccine, PCR and quarantine requirements for travelling to Türkiye have been removed. Marketscreener.com Source
Read moreMassachusetts man sentenced to 33 months for unlawful export of defense articles to Turkey Marketscreener.com Source link
Read moreTrade press release: Türkiye: Coca-Cola İçecek A.Ş. (CCI) orders Nordex turbine for its factory Marketscreener.com Source link
Read moreTurkey Visa for Dominica Republic, Haiti, Fiji and Grenadian Citizens Marketscreener.com Source link
Read more03 November 2022 Turkey’s leading industrial company, Tüpraş, announced the financial results for the third quarter of 2022. Tüpraş, realizing
Read moreSWEDEN PM: TURKEY AND SWEDEN HAVE AGREED ON ME COMING TO ANKARA, WE’LL GET BACK LATER ON
Read moreTurkey Visa for Grenadian Citizens This Turkey e-Visa has been launched to allow visitors to easily obtain their visas online.
Read more
