Strategic Perspectivs And Risk Analysis

In terms of strategy, Ankara is aiming to act with the US to prevent Iraq’s disintegration and also work in line with the European Union. In such a situation, it’s considered a strategic opportunity that the US is facing difficulties in establishing security and so needs Turkey. If Ankara can follow a policy in line with the US and Iraq’s integrity can be ensured, it would influence Europe’s attitude towards Turkey.

Ankara thinks that by following policies in line with the US’ expectations, it can end the PKK/KADEK threat and strengthen Iraq’s physical and political integrity for both its own benefit and ours. However, it’s also weighing the military and political risks of sending soldiers. The General Staff is doing the militarily risk analysis and the Foreign Ministry is handling the political side.

The military risk analysis contains three basic elements:

1. The supply/reinforcement lines would be both long and dangerous.

2. Possible attack by Kurdish groups and Arab nationalists, provocative actions and PKK/KADEK terrorists escalating armed attacks.

3. The risk of street fighting, urban warfare.

The dangers in terms of political risk are as follows:

1. Tensions in Ankara’s relations with the Arab world.

2. Souring ties with the Kurdish groups in northern Iraq.

3. Possible tension with certain European countries might hurt Turkey’s EU membership bid.

In sum, Turkey is considering the pros and cons of sending its soldiers to Iraq. In addition, the government should work to clear up all the ambiguous points on the issue.