Reshuffling on the right
Many members of the True Path Party (DYP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), neither of which passed the election threshold in the national elections in 2002 or received the desired amount of support in this year’s local elections, are considering whether an extraordinary party congress should be called in the near future. If we disregard the Motherland Party (ANAP), whose branch presidents are now resorting to newspaper ads to attract new members, we can separate the efforts under two headings. First, there are the efforts to form a political movement on the right of the political spectrum, as an alternative to the AKP, led by one of the present parties. There are also many people who are trying to form a new party.
We will ignore the efforts to form a new party, because these are generally efforts to form a political movement around a single individual that will result in a one-man party. The only thing that can be said is that these parties will most probably divide the constituency on the right at the national elections, most believe will take place some time in 2005. Even if they know they will not receive wide-spread national support, some local candidates may disturb the balance in certain cities.
Let’s now look at the DYP and MHP.
Intra-party criticisms have resurfaced after MHP leader Devlet Bahceli’s recovery from a major operation. Those opposed to Bahceli believe the party should convene an extraordinary congress sometime this autumn. Bahceli supporters are making preparations, or at least considering various alternative strategies, in case the congress becomes unavoidable. The names of former Istanbul deputy Mehmet Gul and former Transportation Minister Oktay Vural are being talked about within the party. Gul represents the extreme wing of the party, while Vural represents the more moderate groups. Another person who is still in contention for party leadership is Ramiz Ongun, who faced considerable abuse during the last congress in Erciyes. However, all three seem ill-equipped to turn the MHP into the magnet for conservative voters or an alternative to the AKP on the right.
That’s why all political engineers in Ankara have concentrated their attention on the DYP. Some believe current party leader Mehmet Agar has at least stopped the erosion of the party and assured that party support would stay at around the 10 percent mark. They don’t want to treat him unfairly, but are also considering what they can to become the next government. It should be noted that former DYP leader and the ninth President Suleyman Demirel visited Aydin menders recently and former DYP and ANAP deputies are constantly holding meetings to determine where they stand.
However, the debates within the DYP have to be on the policies the party has to follow, not on who will lead it, because there are those who believe that the party has a chance to become the government if it emphasizes its traditionally conservative line and follow populist politics, while others believe the DYP needs a new vision. While some call for present economic policies being supported by the wealthy, others defend concentrating on urban voters. The truth is that people within and outside of the DYP paint a confused picture on how they can turn the party’s fortunes around. According to some DYP members, Turkey is headed towards another economic crisis and the current process could end up with Turkey playing an active role in Iraq and a dramatic change in the composition of Turkish politics. That’s why they argue that the party needs to follow a more inclusive policy and also try to attract social-democrats. Of course, the party leadership is totally opposed to such policies, but they are also seeking alternative policies that will advance the party interest, while keeping their seats.
All these show that we have entered a new period of political reshuffling on the right. These issues will probably dominate the agenda in autumn.
