Referendum Surprise for Turkey

First Nicolas Sarkozy, who is expected to lead the ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party come November, and now French President Jacques Chirac, who strongly supported Turkey so far, entertains the idea of holding a referendum on Turkey.

Political parties other than Radical Left and the Greens, both of which have no impact on political life in France, view Turkey’s membership either negatively or as conditional.

Gathering the rightist parties under one umbrella, UMP defended from the beginning that Turkey has no place in Europe. Meanwhile, the main opposition Social Democrat Party wanted Turkey to recognize the So-Called Armenian Genocide as a prerequisite to starting discussions. Despite his party’s negative attitude, Chirac, who sends warm messages to Turkey, announced that he would make his decision according to the results of the Progress report. In addition, polls in France indicate that more than half of the French do not want Turkey in the EU.

Political parties did not hold back from using Turkey as a political tool in recent local and European elections. After it became increasingly obvious that the progress report will most likely be positive, the referendum issue was thrown into the mix. It has reached a point that the rightist parties seem likely to turn the EU Constitution referendum, which is planned for 2005, into a "yes" or "no" referendum on Turkey.

French Parliament EU Delegation Vice President Christian Philip comments that the end of this process amounts to the "EU running into a brick wall." Phillip, in order to emphasize the importance of France’s attitude, reminded that Charles de Gaulle vetoed Great Britain. The EU parliamentarian suggests that other countries are likely to take the issue to referendum as well.

Meanwhile, this is not the first time that a referendum has been required for a candidate country’s EU membership. In 1972, then President Georges Pompidou had sent the British membership, which De Gaulle had vetoed twice, to referendum. Only 68 percent of the public said "yes".

The referendum demand in France could be interpreted as the first concrete confrontation between a Europe that has so far regarded Turkey’s accession to EU as "distant" and a Turkey that sees Europe as a reality.