Predictions for Turkey in 2004

From today until Saturday I will deliver my predictions on the main issues to watch in 2004. Be warned though, I’m not a fortune teller, I’m just trying to list the possibilities so you know what to expect.

Now fasten your seat belts and get ready for takeoff — our first stop is the local elections scheduled for March 28.

Local elections will mean big changes for Turkey and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

I am under the impression that the AK Party is waiting for the local election results before announcing its future plans. What do you think?

The first important issue is the Higher Education Board (YOK) law. The real issue is the admission of students wearing headscarves to universities and removing the obstacles preventing graduates from religious high schools from attending whichever faculty they want. We know the AK Party is under pressure from its constituents. The number of people saying, "What happened to the government we formed? We cannot protect our own students. We are not doing what our constituents really want," is increasing daily.

If the AK Party really desired it, the YOK law could be passed. The party’s parliamentary majority is more than enough to secure it. However, the AK Party is not doing it. When confronted by resistance, the AK Party reverses its course immediately to reduce tensions, even at the risk of seeming weak in the eyes of the media.

During the Koran courses issue, the AK Party did the same thing. The law could have been passed exactly as they wanted, but when confronted with objections the party retreated to reduce conflict.

During military council meetings, the AK Party allows the expulsion of officers with radical religious views, merely noting its objections. It seems like the AK Party is just trying to learn the balance of power before showing its true power. But, if it receives the support of 35 to 40 percent of the electorate in the coming local elections, it will get a significant boost. Maybe then the AK Party will begin to act more forcefully.

If these guesses are correct and the AK Party acts forcefully after the elections, it is easy to see that Turkey will again be affected by a serious and destabilizing crisis. A victorious AK Party that retains its current stance after the elections will be very good for Turkey. It will mean a Turkey that is at peace with itself, and an end to the conflict between Kemalists and Islamists. What could be better?

The final phase of the economic program will also be implemented in 2004.

Turkey will fight the final battle in its war against inflation. 2003 had been a very good year in this respect. However, no one should forget that there are some individuals in this country feeding off inflation. These people, who would not favour a victory over inflation, will make their last stand in 2004. If they win, all our efforts will have been in vain. But if we can hold them off, inflation will be in single digits for the first time in two decades and six zeros will be thrown off the currency. We will start living like human beings.

2004 will be a year of battles on the economic front. As for whether these battles are bloody, we will have a clearer understanding in the next few months.

Another interesting point about 2004 is that new parties and leaders will emerge during the year. Right now, there is a vacant space confronting the AK Party that no individual or party has been able to fill.

Conflict in the center-right and center-left continues. While the True Path Party (DYP) seems confident, the Motherland Party (ANAP) is constantly losing ground. Current ANAP leader Nesrin Nas may be their last chance to stop this erosion of support. If ANAP and DYP merge, they might become an alternative to the AK Party.

Meanwhile on the left, the outlook is even more depressing. I don’t know why the Republican People’s Party (CHP) choose to represent those supporting big state, but it’s clear they failed to address the concerns of the public. Most of the nation thinks the state should be small and more modern, they support the solution of long running problems such as Cyprus, and they want a new outlook towards the EU. CHP has taken the position of protecting the status quo. The only hope on the left is still the New Turkey Party (YTP) leader Ismail Cem. If he can unite the left, he might even surpass CHP.