Polls show far-right in lead ahead of elections in German state of Brandenburg

BERLIN 

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is leading in the polls in Brandenburg, one of Germany’s eastern states, ahead of elections on Sept. 22.

It is worrying large segments of Germany.

Following state parliamentary elections in Thuringia and Saxony on Sept.1, about 2 million voters will cast ballots in regional elections in the state.

Opinion polls indicate that the far-right, anti-immigrant AfD is projected to lead with 28% of the vote.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) party is expected to follow closely with 27%, while the center-right Christian Democratic (CDU) is forecast to place third with 14%.

In the last state parliamentary election in the Brandenburg, known as a SPD’s stronghold, the SPD was first with 26.2% in 2019, while the AfD followed with 23.5%.

In Brandenburg, the newly founded left-populist Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) party is gaining ground, projected to finish fourth with 13%.

The BSW is expected to play a crucial role in upcoming coalition talks, while other parties continue to reject any alliance with the AfD because of o its anti-democratic stance.

Worrying possibility

Burhan Kesici, president of the Islamic Federation of Germany, told Anadolu that group saw AfD was the first and second party in Thuringia and Saxony in elections in September and said it is a possibility that the far-right party would be the first party in the state.

He described it as a “worrying” possibility.

Pointing out that not only the far-right party, but other parties have changed their ideas and discourse, he said, “We see that politics is a little harsher, especially on Muslims and foreigners.”

Even if the AfD becomes the first party in Brandenburg, it will most likely not be able to form the government, said Kesici.

“But the current government parties will have a harsher policy against foreigners and more restrictions on asylum and Muslims,” he said, adding it might cause further issues.

Kesici noted that the exclusion of Muslims, immigrants and Islamophobia have increased in everyday life in Germany.

He said if the AfD becomes the first party in Brandenburg, the ideas it presents will be more accepted in society, and the party would be able to express its ideas more openly.

“Even if there is not much change at first, we expect changes in the medium and long term,” he noted.

“Friedrich Merz, the chairman of the CDU, became a candidate for prime minister. It is likely that he will now pursue a much tougher and more right-wing politics,” said Kesici. “Other parties are likely to incorporate right-wing views into their party programs.”

‘Devastating for image of state’

Benjamin Lassiwe, president of the Brandenburg Press Conference, said the AfD has been strong in the state in recent years and has been the first party in opinion polls.

“This would be devastating for the image of the state of Brandenburg,” Lassiwe said about the possibility of the AfD coming first in the elections.

Pointing out that the far-right party feeds on latent xenophobia in the state, he stressed: “The AfD has gained strength due to the attack in Solingen last month and the wave of refugees in recent years.”

Lassiwe said people should not want a radical right-wing party to come to power in a state like Brandenburg, which is the center of the economy: “The fact that many small parties cannot enter the state parliament also poses a danger.”

‘If AfD comes to power, migrants will be forced to emigrate’

Ercan Yasaroglu, who has lived in Germany for 42 years and fought against racism in various non-governmental organizations, said if the AfD comes to power at the federal level, immigrants will have to migrate to avoid becoming victims.

“If the AfD comes to power, the European Union will fall apart, the danger of war will increase and we immigrants will have to migrate in order not to be victimized,” he said. “But I am in favor of taking a stand in this development process.”

Explaining that Europe will lose its values if AfD gets high votes, he stated: “All of Europe’s so-called democratic values will be destroyed by AfD.”

He gave France, Denmark and Italy as examples.

“There is a very intense shift to the right or to nationalism all over Europe. This means the disintegration of the EU,” he said.

Yasaroglu, who evaluated that if the far-right party receives 30% of the vote in Brandenburg elections, there will be an interaction in the Western states, said: “But my guess is that it will remain at 15% at the federal level, it will not go higher.”

He emphasized that the rise of the AfD could lead to an increase in racism, allowing many Germans who previously refrained from making racist statements to feel emboldened.

He highlighted societal fears of war, poverty and the future, which are driving voters toward right-wing parties as they seek security.

If the AfD gains power, he warned, migrants could face heightened violence, including being beaten, burned or even killed.

*Writing by Merve Berker

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