PM faces tough nut to crack in Brussels

Erdogan is scheduled to depart tonight for Brussels and meet Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt for breakfast to discuss the latest tension in Turkish-EU ties, which could thwart Turkey’s long-running quest to join the European club if not contained.

He will also to hold talks with EU Commissioner for Enlargement Guenther Verheguen in the afternoon and will address the leaders of political groups in the European Parliament in Brussels.

The prime minister faces the tough task of fine-tuning relations with EU officials, who are now more skeptical towards overwhelmingly Muslim but secular Turkey’s readiness to start accession talks and who will seek a concrete guarantee from him that Turkey will complete the "centerpiece" of its human rights reforms, the penal code, on time.

Verheugen and the European lawmakers are expected to press Erdogan to abandon his plans on adultery and pass the penal code reform through the Turkish Parliament before Oct. 6, when the European Commission is to issue a key report that will spell out whether or not Turkey has met the Copenhagen criteria. EU leaders are due to make up their minds on launching the Turkish accession talks based on the commission report at a December summit.

The prime minister is expected to tone down his harsh criticism of the EU when he meets with Verheugen and parliamentary group leaders, some of whom are already known for their objections to Turkish accession due to the country’s large Muslim population and relatively poor economy.

He is likely to face tough questioning by the group of leaders over the insistent efforts of his Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) to outlaw adultery, seen in Europe as an attempt to introduce Islamic law to constitutionally secular Turkey but also, if it receives the green light for entry talks, to the European Union.

Erdogan to test the water
Erdogan reportedly pushed for adding a proposal on adultery to the penal code reform not only as a result of pressure from his conservative grassroots but also because he personally believes that it should be a punishable crime. If that is true, having those motives at heart, he is unlikely to back down quickly in the face of European pressure

However, sources close to him told the Turkish Daily News that the premier would seek to persuade the European parliamentarians and Verheugen that the matter would be resolved according to EU norms, which would mean abandoning his plans that foresee jail sentences for adultery but including the controversial issue within the Turkish Civil Code. In his contacts Erdogan is expected to emphasize a bridge role for Turkey between the West and the Islamic world as well.

It is clear in Brussels’ strongly worded warnings that the union will not easily take a step backwards, either. Verheugen reminded Ankara over the weekend that it was Turkey that sought to join the European Union, not vice versa.

In fact, Erdogan has staked his political future on Turkey’s long-running EU bid, and his administration has enacted a swath of reforms in order to secure the start of membership talks. The country’s failure to start entry negotiations, expected last until 2015, could rattle the fragile Turkish economy and eventually undermine his government, observers say.

Erdogan’s aides have been exploring possible ways out, and a number of options for ratification of the penal code — which are in line with parliamentary procedures — after the general assembly reconvenes on Oct. 1 were presented to the premier.

Among them, passing the penal code as part of a larger reform package through Parliament before the EU December summit is a likely one. On the other hand, his AKP members advised ratification of the reform on Oct. 2 as another option, although this would require pushing parliamentary procedures harder. The premier could think more flexibly after his Brussels contacts, another source told the TDN.

Erdogan’s government had to put the penal code reform on ice after failing to secure the main opposition party’s backing on its adultery proposal late last week.

Commission report could be conditional
The tension between Ankara and Brussels was ignited by warnings issued by European Commission officials that the withdrawal of the Turkish penal code reform could derail Turkey’s EU bid. The EU warnings attracted an angry response from Erdogan, who accused the union of interfering in Turkey’s domestic affairs and said, "The EU is not indispensable for Turkey."

"It is not interference in Turkish affairs; it is the rule of the game if a country wants to be an EU member," a spokesman for the commission, Jean-Christophe Filori, later responded.

The commission also signaled that it was prepared to pull the rug out from under the Turkish prime minister’s feet. First Verheguen said reforming the penal code was indispensable for the start of talks with Ankara and that the commission would not say "yes" to Turkey if that was not done before the release of the commission report. The Turkish government should abandon plans to criminalize adultery, he added.

Similar strongly worded warnings by his spokesman, Filori, earlier this week did nothing but increase the pressure on Ankara ahead of Erdogan’s Brussels trip. "The commission will make it clear that the negotiations cannot start if the new penal code is not adopted by Oct. 6," Filori said. On Tuesday, Filori’s remarks were repeated in a written statement issued by the commission, a clear sign that a positive recommendation on Turkey is now tied to ratification of the new penal code.

Sources close to Erdogan dismissed the tension with Brussels. If the commission were to impose a condition in its Turkey report on the penal code reform, it would be couched in diplomatic language — not even mentioning the name of the penal code, according to the sources.

The premier’s aides view the December EU summit as crucial and believe that normalization in exchanges between the two sides will be achieved by that time. A whistle-stop tour to a number of EU capitals is being planned for Erdogan in November, indicating that the premier has no intention of abandoning Turkey’s EU bid.