Own interests, US ties divide Turkey

With the US-led assault on Iraq nearing the end of its second week, Turkey says it is one of the regional states with the most to lose. As a result, it is torn between its 50-year relationship with the United States — already frail from Turkey’s refusal to allow US troops to use its territory to launch a massive ground attack on Iraq from the north — and its determination to act in its national interest.

Times have changed in Turkey since the 1991 Gulf War, when Ankara offered solid support for the US-led coalition. For the first time in its 80-year history as a secular state, predominantly Muslim Turkey finds itself in agreement with neighboring Arab states, which view the war as an unjustified assault on the entire Islamic world.
”The United States is in a position to consider Turkey’s concerns. But if these concerns are not taken care of, we will take action ourselves,” warned a Turkish official involved in foreign policymaking.
Some analysts were more blunt, saying Turkey’s pledge to stay out of northern Iraq for now is far more conditional than the Americans and the Turks admit publicly. ”Turkey’s position is simply that it will go in, if and when it believes it must, and it doesn’t need approval from other countries,” said Akif Beki, a senior journalist and commentator.

Washington fears that a Turkish incursion deep inside northern Iraq, now under Kurdish control, could spark a conflict with Kurdish groups aiding US troops as they work to secure the area.

Kurdish militias have made it clear to Washington that they will be less cooperative if Turkish troops enter the territory. They fear Turkey’s underlying motivation behind a military presence is to halt Kurdish attempts at autonomy — independence Turkey says could encourage secessionist moves from among its own restive Kurds, numbering between 15 million and 20 million of Turkey’s 70 million people.

This complex web of state interests and interlocking ethnic groups has kept US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad shuttling between Turkey and northern Iraq to keep the lid on things.

Khalilzad, who arrived in Ankara Saturday after talks with the Kurds in northern Iraq earlier last week, said the Turks have assured Washington that they will not send in tens of thousands of troops. Turkey already has between 3,000 and 17,000 troops in northern Iraq as part of operations conducted since the 1990s to fight Turkish Kurds hiding in the mountains. Parliament has approved plans to send in large numbers of extra troops to operate in a 12-mile border buffer zone and, if necessary, beyond it.

Khalilzad said he also received assurances from Kurdish groups that they will not attempt to establish an independent state nor take over oil fields in the northern Iraqi town of Kirkuk, in exchange for helping US forces in the war.

”The Turks understand how much we have helped them over the years,” Khalilzad said, ”and if we saw something happening that was negative for Turkey, we would want to deal with this and change our plan.”

But like the hundreds of thousands of Arabs who have staged anti-American demonstrations in numerous countries and like the Shi’ites in Iraq, who have failed to welcome American troops with open arms as US military planners had expected, the Turks have far less trust in Washington than during the Gulf War.

In addition, Turkey’s newly elected Islamist government, unlike staunchly secular governments of the past, must answer to its Muslim supporters who overwhelmingly oppose the war. An estimated 94 percent of Turks are against the war. Even Turkey’s traditionally pro-American military, which wields enormous power, is lukewarm about the conflict, according to military sources.

The great possibility of a flood of Kurdish refugees pouring across the border is one of Turkey’s major concerns. Approximately 500,000 refugees made their way into Turkey during the Gulf War. This exodus and a dramatic decline in tourist revenue crippled the Turkish economy with losses in the billions. In recent days, Turkish markets have plummeted in response to the start of the war.

An unprecedented shift in Turkish politics has strengthened the government’s resolve to defend its national interests, even at the risk of increased tensions with the United States. Historically, the Kemalists, (named for Kemal Ataturk, Turkey’s founder) who dominate the military establishment, were pro-Western, while Islamic-oriented politicians were anti-Western.

Over the last 10 years, say analysts, a transformation has occurred. The military establishment has become more skeptical of Washington and Turkey’s other Western allies. Now, at least some parts of the military establishment are in agreement with the Islamist politicians running the government.

”When Bush came to power, anti-Americanism started to rise in Turkey and now it is only getting worse,” said Beki, the journalist and commentator. ”The Kemalists started to say, `The US is not serious about democracy and promoting human rights in the region.’ And the Islamic community sees the Kemalists were right. Now, they are standing side by side in the campaign against the war.”

This subtle alliance, said Beki, was a significant factor in the Turkish Parliament’s decision earlier this month to reject a US proposal to allow US troops to open a northern front through Turkey to attack Iraq. The absence of this front is widely regarded as a serious handicap in the war against Saddam Hussein.

”Turkey is putting its national interest over its relationship with the United States,” Beki said. ”The US can’t risk losing Turkey and Ankara knows this. But at the same time, Turkey needs Washington’s military support, especially now that the region is so unstable.”

Mehmet Ali Birand, another journalist, said Turkey feels even more pressured now that its relationship with the United States is strained. ”There is a general feeling in policymaking circles that the Turks shouldn’t do anything to annoy the Americans. But everything depends upon the pace of the war.”