OUR IRAQ POLICY BECOMES CLEARER

These are the basic pillars put forward for Iraq’s reconstruction in the post-Saddam period. The United States, the United Nations and Iraq’s neighbors have agreed on this. Turkey’s policy from this angle is consistent and valid. But in the face of what’s actually happening now in Iraq, these principles fall far short. For example, what kind of a political structure will bring Iraq’s various ethnic groups with their different interests together? How will the federal system function? How will a balance be established between the Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, Sunnis and Shiites? How will this balance and stability be preserved during elections set for this June? This is the main issue, and here there is no consensus either among the various groups in Iraq or among the countries involved.

The basic elements of Turkey’s policy became clearer in this respect. Ankara has declared that it is against a Kurdish formation that could lead to a division of Iraq and even noted that this could be a ‘casus belli.’ Now will Turkey counter such a formation? The current voices out of Ankara show that Turkey is against a federation based on ethnicity, but would not oppose a multi-regional federal system. This is an important development. Actually this attitude is also shared by the groups in Iraq (except the Kurds) as well as countries in the region and the US. If a consensus is reached on this, and if the Kurdish leaders favoring a federal system paving the way for the establishment of an independent ‘Kurdistan’ with Kirkuk as its center are convinced that this won’t happen, a serious crisis could then be averted. Of course, the US will have the main responsibility in this issue.

Recently a Shiite presence asserted itself in Iraq. In the past Turkey has been more distant towards the Iraqi Shiites, but now Ankara’s tune has changed. This is because the Shiites are opposed to an ethnic federation. But one cannot ignore the increasing influence of the Shiites (and their role in Iraq’s administration), as they constitute 60% of the Iraqi population. How large a role will the US and UN give to the Shiites in Iraq’s reconstruction process? Is Ayatollah Sistani’s main goal to establish a theocratic state in Iraq dominated by Shiites, as in Iran? Can Iraq establish a democratic regime which will not be anti-Western and can integrate with the world (unlike Iran) if the US reaches an agreement with Sistani? It is of concern to Turkey what kind of facilities the Shiites will obtain and how they will position the county. This is one of the basic elements that will determine what kind of an Iraq will emerge.”