Opinion: Turkey is Dangerously Playing with Fire
Some leaders – including some of the world’s most experienced – still haven’t understood that political maneuvering and intimidation almost always degenerate into macroeconomic disasters. What was initially just meant to sideline a political opponent immediately turned into investor panic and a financial hemorrhage. A textbook case of how to methodically and deliberately destroy what little trust remained in a Turkey whose desert crossing now seems endless.
The masterstroke came with the arrest, on March 19th, of the Mayor of Istanbul – the frontrunner for the upcoming Turkish presidential elections – on a grave charge that would disqualify many of our French political leaders. He was accused, without proof, of “irregularities” regarding his 1990 degree from the American University of Girne (Northern Cyprus). The University of Istanbul promptly responded by revoking the equivalency of his degree, which made him de facto ineligible for the presidency, as the Turkish Constitution requires presidential candidates to hold a university diploma. As of July 2025, an additional accusation alleges that Mr. İmamoğlu falsified his university degree, making him liable for prison time on charges of “forgery of official documents.”
That March 19th set off a historic chain reaction, triggered by irrational manipulations carried out by a ruling power that values ego over the economic and financial stability of the nation. This was not about reforms – however controversial – but about a destruction of confidence that cost the Central Bank USD 90 billion. The bank has nearly depleted its reserves in an attempt to defend against the uncontrollable collapse of its currency, which that day alone plummeted by 12 percent! In a global context where most central banks are cutting rates to stimulate their economies, Turkey once again stood out by being forced to raise its benchmark interest rate to 46 percent to contain the tsunami unleashed on March 19th – the day a presidential candidate was disqualified over a diploma.
The situation would be laughable if it weren’t so serious for the people of a country rendered completely dysfunctional, next to which even Argentina looks sober. The leadership shows no concern for the flatline of foreign investment or the economic bleeding, because staying in power is all that matters. Its survival comes before prosperity and before any bailout that might bring desperately needed liquidity to its people. The Turkish lira, which just 10 years ago was below two to the dollar, and below 5 seven years ago, has now plummeted to 40. The price of a liter of gasoline has risen from 1.48 lira in 2002 to 53 lira today. Inflation stands at 49 percent, likely underestimated since the government controls 85 percent of the national media.
Was there a particular message the country’s leaders wanted to send to the markets through this arrest?
Absolutely: that stability is optional – authority is not.
Welcome to Turkish governance.
For more on the author, Michel Santi and his exclusive opinion pieces, visit his website here: michelsanti.fr
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