Opinion | Erdogan won Turkey’s election. But this is not the end of the story.
Erdogan used all the advantages of being an incumbent — state resources, media control, favorable election laws — to beat up on his opponent. His rival, the 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is a former civil servant who emerged as the lead candidate after a more popular opponent, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, was subjected to a sham trial in January 2022 and disqualified from running.
During the campaign — possibly Turkey’s most divisive — Kilicdaroglu was targeted for his Alevi identity, accused by Erdogan of being pro-LGBT, and of being supported by “terrorists.” In campaign rallies, Erdogan showed fake videos that depict Kurdish separatist PKK leaders singing the opposition’s campaign song.
“So what if it is a fake?” Erdogan said.
Turkey’s geopolitical orientation was also on the ballot. Erdogan said President Biden was supporting his rivals, while the opposition complained of Russian interference, with Kilicdaroglu going so far as to tweet in Russian warning Moscow to stay out of the race. Erdogan had been increasingly drifting from the transatlantic orbit and developing closer ties with Russia. To stave off Turkey’s economic problems, he managed to secure financial backing from Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar in the form of central bank loans, which allowed him to provide handouts and wage increases in the run up to elections.
It was therefore a win, not just for the Turkish leader but for the global club of autocracies.
This is not the end of the story for Turkey, however. Erdogan might be in power for another five years, and those five years will almost certainly further hollow out institutions and entrench authoritarian political habits in the country’s psyche. But the election was closely fought, even if it was not free and fair.
While Erdogan may well see the results as an approval for his domestic policies and his nonaligned geopolitical course, he should not get overconfident. The country is deeply polarized and though a slim majority was swayed by his populist message, an economic reckoning looms. Turkey’s central bank reserves are once again in the negative territory. Economists are worried about currency devaluation or capital controls to prevent a financial panic over the next few months.
“Turkey will break your heart,” an exiled Turkish journalist once warned me more than two decades ago.
It has — over and over again. Sunday, it happened one more time.
And yet 25 million Turkish citizens across the nation had the courage to vote for Kilicdaroglu’s opposition platform, despite incessant state propaganda, sectarian provocations and election-day irregularities. That number — 25 million — is greater than the population of most European countries and is a testament to Turkish society’s enduring democratic resilience. Those 25 million hail from Turkey’s major cities and prosperous coastal regions, and represent the professional, educated classes. They want change — and will not be easily bought off or distracted.
Over the weekend, Turkish star Merve Dizdar was awarded best actress at the Cannes Film Festival for her role in the film “About Dry Grasses.” She dedicated her prize “to all the rebellious souls in Turkey waiting to live the good days that they deserve.”
The election results tell us that their dreams can be postponed but cannot be quashed.
Erdogan must not forget that.
