Opinion | Erdogan won in Turkey. What does the West do now?
A strongman who has undermined democracy and civil rights while making common cause with Moscow in return for billions of dollars in Russian assistance to Turkey’s disintegrating economy, Mr. Erdogan will continue to be a problem that needs managing. Tough bargaining and muscle flexing — the transactional style of diplomacy Mr. Erdogan himself favors — are the keys for minimizing the trouble he can cause.
Mr. Erdogan has blocked Sweden from joining NATO, ostensibly over its refusal to take a tougher line, including extradition, on Kurdish activists he regards as terrorists. And he opposed Western sanctions against Russia, providing a corridor through which Moscow has been able to import some goods banned for export there by the United States and Europe.
But Mr. Erdogan has at least one big ask from the United States and is likely to have more as the Turkish economy he has badly mismanaged continues to unravel. For well over a year he has been trying to buy a $20 billion package of new U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets as well as modernization kits for his own aging jet fleet. The sale is supported by the Biden administration but has been held up by congressional leaders irritated at Ankara’s refusal to assent to Sweden’s application for NATO membership, among other issues.
Halting Stockholm’s entry is a gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin, but at this point its significance is mainly symbolic. NATO is integrating the Swedish armed forces into its military structures even without extending a formal security guarantee. In that standoff, at least, Washington’s F-16 leverage with Turkey should carry the day; congressional leaders would be wise to see it that way by clearing the path for a deal.
The Biden administration should also coax more concessions from Ankara to impede Russian oligarchs from using Turkey as a base of operations and vacation destination. Past pressure from Washington has been partly effective in prompting Turkey to block transit of Western-sanctioned goods to Russia, and U.S. officials should be aggressive in penalizing Turkey-based entities that break the rules.
The Kremlin’s financial support, critical to keeping the Turkish economy afloat, is unlikely to continue flowing at previous levels as Western sanctions continue to squeeze Russia’s oil revenue. That, along with the military ineptitude Moscow has demonstrated in Ukraine, should send a message to Mr. Erdogan that his warm ties with Mr. Putin are likely to pay diminishing returns.
It’s true that the West might not be able to impede Mr. Erdogan’s steady march away from democratic norms; the election he just won owed much to his clampdown on Turkey’s once-vibrant media, the jailing of political opponents, and his ruthless manipulation of state institutions and resources. His atrocious human rights record is a key pillar of his power.
Nonetheless, the Biden administration and its European allies should continue to speak out for the fundamental Western values that Mr. Erdogan has trampled — even as they face the reality that he enjoys the protections of some of the West’s most prestigious institutions.
