News Analysis: Israel-Gaza conflict test for Turkish-Israeli reconciliation

October 16, 2023 admin-dominor

People attend a rally to voice solidarity with Palestinians in Ankara, Türkiye, on Oct. 14, 2023. (Mustafa Kaya/Handout via Xinhua)

by Burak Akinci

ANKARA, Oct. 16 (Xinhua) — The raging Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a stress test for the normalization process between Türkiye and Israel and has the potential to hurt delicate bilateral ties, experts said.

Initially, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was noticeably more measured in the latest crisis unlike previous escalations, where he had rallied against Israeli aggression.

This time around, he has advised both sides to exercise restraint and “act reasonably,” and also offered his country’s mediation.

However, following the siege and heavy bombing of the Gaza Strip, the Turkish leader switched to a stronger tone, describing Israel’s latest actions as “not a war, but a massacre” of civilians.

“Israel’s “disproportionate and unfounded” attacks on Gaza may lead it to international disrepute, Erdogan said.

Hamas’ surprise attack against Israel on Oct. 7 came at a time when Ankara is seeking to deepen its rapprochement with Israel, eyeing economic cooperation, particularly in the energy field.

Analysts believe that the Turkish leader is stuck between a rock and a hard place and that maintaining a moderate tone will be challenging.

“I feel that Erdogan is engaged in a delicate balancing game,” Batu Coskun, an Ankara-based political analyst, told Xinhua.

On one side there is the Turkish people’s sympathy for the Palestinian cause. On the other side is Türkiye’s recently proliferating relationship with Israel, expected to include major energy cooperation on the transfer of Israeli gas into Türkiye and then Europe, he said.

In Coskun’s view, “there is indeed a risk” that the Israeli-Gaza crisis may harm the newly found stability in the Turkish-Israeli relationship.

“If the crisis in Gaza becomes politically costly for Erdogan, particularly as local elections are scheduled for March 2024, he could choose to once again downgrade relations,” this analyst added.

After years of frayed relations, Türkiye and Israel fully restored their diplomatic ties in 2022, months after Israeli President Isaac Herzog met with Erdogan in Ankara.

Last month, the Turkish leader and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly amid plans for the latter to pay an official visit to Ankara possibly at the end of this year.

Turkish-Israeli relations have warmed as part of an effort by Erdogan to repair damaged relations with rivals in the Middle East.

According to Murat Yesiltas, a scholar at Ankara’s Social Sciences University, the reconciliation efforts of Arab states and Türkiye with Israel may be affected by the scope of the latter’s military operations in Gaza.

“The normalization efforts between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco might be adversely affected, and the already strained normalization between Türkiye and Israel could face further challenges,” he said in a recent opinion piece on Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah.

Media reports said Saudi Arabia has also paused its normalization drive with Israel.

Yesiltas further argued that if Türkiye succeeds in negotiating the release of Israeli hostages and de-escalates the conflict, the situation could improve.

“Conversely, if these efforts fail and Israel’s occupation of Gaza intensifies, Ankara and Tel Aviv may need to reconsider their ongoing diplomatic process,” Yesiltas added.

Unlike its Western NATO allies, Türkiye doesn’t consider Hamas a terrorist organization and sees it as a legitimate political actor.

Erdogan hosted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in late July in Ankara, urging internal reconciliation.

Türkiye’s public opinion is largely pro-Palestinian. However, this time, many Turks also showed solidarity with Israel on social media following the killings of Israeli civilians.

“Pro-Israel sympathy will weaken as long as Palestinians suffer in Gaza, and this could push Erdogan to review relations with Israel,” Serkan Demirtas, a foreign policy analyst and Ankara-based journalist, said to Xinhua. ■