Last hope, the EU Commission

The attitude of most of the EU member countries is this:

"If the EU Commission releases a positive report, or in nother words, says Turkey has fulfilled the Copenhagen criteria and recommends the start of membership negotiations, we will act in accordance with that recommendation."

There are two underlying reasons behind this attitude.

The first, and the most important, reason is to blame the commission for the "crime" of starting membership negotiations with Turkey. The negative public view on the matter is still strong. The governments are hiding behind the commission in order to shield themselves from both the negative consequences of saying "NO" to Turkey and to lessen the public outcry that a "YES" will generate.

The second reason is more a product of bad intentions.

Commission reports are never black or white. It usually paints a gray picture. The purpose is to give the member countries more room to maneuver when they are making political decisions. While sometimes member countries say "YES" on certain political matters, which the commission reports recommends a definite "NO," usually commission recommendations are accepted.

That’s why the commission report is so important for the member countries.

The only hope for the European capitals, which want the negotiations to be postponed for a little more time, but fear the risk of deteriorating relations with Ankara or are failing to find reasons to raise objections in the light of recent reforms implemented by Turkey, is the commission report that emphasizes the negative aspects.

In that case, they will be able to say, "What can we do? The commission was not satisfied with your reform process," without angering Turkey.

In summary, in both cases, they will be using the commission.

They will put pressure on the commission
The report on Turkey will be prepared by the section headed by EU Commissioner for Enlargement Guenter Verheugen. When it’s completed, it will be distributed to 30 commissioners, and each will assess it or make recommendations for changes.

The attitude of the commissioners is very important, because the entire commission needs to approve the report.

This is a very important part in the process.

Every government has the opportunity to influence the commissioner from its country and may whisper in the commissioner’s ear what it wants written in the report. Despite their sworn neutrality, every commissioner listens to his or her country. They may at least come under some pressure.

Pascal Lamy: No, we won’t listen
I asked about the matter to the most senior member of the commission, Commissioner for economic and trade relations Pascal Lamy on the MANSET program broadcast on CNN-Turk. His answer was important. He said:

"Yes, we are aware that we will make a historic decision. We know about the seriousness of the matter. Just like Verheugen, we all believe that the reform process in Turkey should not be suspended. Certain pressure may be applied from member countries to influence our decision. However, we are sworn to neutrality. We are obligated to protect the interests of the EU, not national interests. That’s why we will resist all pressure exerted on us as a commission and will make the decision we believe is right. I don’t believe member countries will make any decisions that run counter to our recommendations."

This statement should ease our nerves a little bit.

Actually, if this commission was not leaving office in November, I would have been listening to Lamy with a certain degree of reservation. However, now everyone knows which member is staying and which member isn’t, and we can accept the statement by Lamy that they will resist all types of pressure.

Let’s see if the developments that will happen between Sept. 1 and Oct. 6 will prove Lamy right.