Kurds open brand-new page

They are making an attempt to have a "say" in the north, proposing that the administration of the region should be associated with them rather than with Baghdad in the federative structure envisioned for Iraq. They are after a new administration that will have its own police, judicial mechanism and education system as well as collecting taxes and spending them according to their own budget.

They are also focusing on having an army of their own and connecting the northern region directly to the president. In addition, they want to exert control over the region’s oil resources.

Although their population (20 percent) is lower than that of the Arabs, they want to have an equal say in the federative state. Canada (where French speakers and English speakers maintain control of the natural resources of the regions in which they live and regardless of population have an equal vote in the federative state), Bosnia and Herzegovina and Belgium to some extent are model countries for them.

This formula is a continuation of the lives they have been living for the past 12 years, thanks to the support of Turkey. It is a step backwards from real independence, and it is an approach that accepts the federative state expected to be established in Iraq.

The strongest opposition to the Kurds will come from the Arabs. But the Kurds intend to make the most of their advantage of being loyal allies of the United States and acting on it.

But will they be successful?

It’s extremely hard but not impossible. The chances of achieving their goal depend on Washington’s policies and the general approach adopted by the Shiites and the Sunnis.

But, of course, Turkey’s approach also should be taken into consideration.

How can Turkey influence the developments?
Turkey has less influence now over the formations in northern Iraq than it did in the past. Washington has the final say, but it will still take Turkey’s views into consideration.

Kurdish leaders should listen to Turkey, understand its sensitivities and act according to them. They should see that they cannot achieve their goal by relying only on the United States and should be careful in their moves because the region they want to control also plays host to the Turkmens, and Ankara is highly sensitive about protecting the rights of the Turkmens living in northern Iraq.

The Kurds currently have two choices:

First, play the cards they have in hand for more than their real value and cause new tensions in the region.

Or make realistic moves.

The road to making realistic moves starts in Ankara.

They must boost dialogue with Ankara, explain their steps one-by-one to Ankara and eliminate Turkey’s worries. At the same time, they must share administrative power with the Turkmens and give them their due rather than trying to eliminate them. In short, they must choose the peaceful approach.

Meanwhile, Ankara has to revise its general view.

Official Turkish policy still bears signs of its former approach. It still refers to every single move made in northern Iraq by saying, "The Kurdish state is under way," and starts making threats.

Isn’t it time to discuss and formualate a more realistic policy rather than living in fear?

If nobody wants Iraq to be divided and if everybody wants to protect the integrity of Iraq under the umbrella of a federation, then we must revise our view. Turkey drew a number of red lines in the past and then neglected them. Big promises were made but none were fulfilled. At the very least, we must not repeat the same mistakes.

We must view the coming days not only in the light of the security aspect but also in the light of international realities, domestic balances and balances in the region. Achieving this is not as hard as it seems. If we can manage to do so, we will be able to bring real peace to our own country.