‘Kurdish state will be founded if Iraq splits up’

If Iraq plunges into turmoil…
He made remarks in the following vein: "Stability in Iraq would be the only factor that could prevent the establishment of a Kurdish state. If the new Iraqi administration in Baghdad takes matters into its own hands, if the wheels of the economy start turning, and if the opposition to the U.S. can be kept under control, the Kurdish will not be able to make any move.

"If the situation in Iraq does not stabilize, if it leads to a civil war (what he means is that if Shiite and Sunni Arabs rebel against the central administration to be established and if developments got out of hand, leaving the country without water or electricity in a climate of turmoil where the wheels of the economy cannot turn), then there would be the possibility of Kurds declaring independence to secure their own region."

How would the U.S. act in such a case?

According to Pollack, a U.S. that has been bogged down in a swamp may not say "Stop!" to the Kurds in such a climate of turmoil. While tackling with the incidents in other parts of the country it may feel the need to condone the Kurds’ move. Hence the great importance of Iraq’s territorial integrity with respect to Kurds.

Though his views conflict with those of the Bush Administration, he believes that for Turkey it would be the right thing to influence the developments by sending troops to Iraq.

For Clinton, Turkey was the star of the region
Pollack, who had worked with the Clinton Administration, says that the latter viewed Turkey in a different light than does the Bush Administration. He says, "Clinton saw Turkey as the star of the region." He says that the Bush Administration views the world in a different light, acting aggressively. He thinks that this approach will not change as long as Bush remains in power.

Why is the U.S. administration, which had displayed its anger towards Turkey due to the "motion incident" of March 1, now seeking troops from Turkey, throwing flowers at Turkey?

In Washington one gets more than one answer to that question: For one thing, they have seen that having a fight with Turkey is not beneficial to them in Iraq and that a new leaf must be turned in relations with Turkey. Also, they are realizing more with each pasing day that they must share responsibility with other countries in Iraq.

According to Pollack, the Bush Administration has pushed itself into a tight spot because it has failed to plan well the aftermath of the war. The U.S. public is already asking, "What is happening? The war was over, wasn’t it?" Turkey will increasingly be affected by the situation in Iraq.

A ‘surplus value’ for Turkey
Relations with the U.S. is the main issue with which those who plan the EU’s future are currently preoccupied. The Bush Administration is increasingly putting a strain on the transatlantic strategic cooperation. Gone is the old warmth between the EU and the U.S., and Washington and Brussels are each going their own way.

This "divorce" is pushing the EU to formulate new defense strategies. We will undoubtedly be seeing the EU take a more active stance in the Middle East, the Caucasus, the Balkans and Central Asia.

In the course of such a critical process, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) will be the most important "surplus value" Turkey’s has. In fact, it is the biggest "asset" Turkey has, an asset from which Turkey will benefit enormously.

For the EU, entering into cooperation with the TSK on a wider scale will be the easiest and soundest way of having its weight felt in these regions. The TSK knows the region better than anyone else. It would be in a position to be more effective to the extent it increases its mobility and its firepower.

When the EU calculates the pros and cons of whether to admit Turkey into its ranks as a full member the most important "surplus value" it will take into consideration will be the TSK — though this view may astonish some of us.