Italy vs Turkiye: Preview and Prediction

Italy will aim to strenghthen their preparations for UEFA Euro 2024 when they welcome Turkiye in Bologna.

Reigning European champions Italy will hope to fine tune their preparations for a successful title defence when they take on Turkiye in Bologna. Now under the stewardship of Luciano Spalletti, the Azzurri will hope to write another chapter in their illustrious history at the international stage.

Italy had to face off against a resurgent Ukraine side to secure their spot in this summer tournament. While Turkiye enjoyed a comparatively easier run in qualification, they were given a brutal reality check last time around when they were thumped 6-1 by Austria.

Last year ended with a major shakeup for Italy, as Euros-winning boss Roberto Mancini suddenly left for Saudi Arabia. Under new head coach Luciano Spalletti, Italy avoided a dreaded playoff by narrowly surpassing Ukraine to secure second place in Group C.

To prepare for the tournament, Spalletti scheduled two friendlies in the United States during the spring international period. These matches allowed him to evaluate tactical options and personnel. Italy defeated Venezuela 2-0 in Miami, thanks to a brace from Mateo Retegui, and then secured a 2-1 victory over Ecuador in New Jersey. These wins bring Italy’s record to six wins from nine matches since their loss in the UEFA Nations League semi-finals.

Italy will now fine tune their preparations against Turkiye at Stadio Dall’Ara and Bosnia-Herzegovina in Empoli. Six days later, they will begin their Euro 2024 campaign against minnows Albania.

Turkiye, like Italy, are preparing for their Euro 2024 debut in Dortmund. Vincenzo Montella’s squad will face debutants Georgia in Group B, which also includes Portugal and Czechia. The Italian coach will hope that a strong showing against his home nation will help boost morale in the Turkish ranks.

Before these losses, Montella’s team was unbeaten since his takeover last September. Turkiye topped Group D in Euros qualifying, accumulating 17 points from eight games and securing an historic victory in Croatia. They finished five points clear of third-placed Wales.

AFter the recent setbacks, Montella seeks a morale-boosting win before the main event. After their match in against Italy, Turkiye will head to Warsaw for a final warm-up against Poland. The Hard Tackle delves into the potential elevens and tactics for this clash.

Team News & Tactics

Italy

Luciano Spalletti, has trimmed his preliminary squad from 30 players in preparation for Euro 2024. This adjustment comes following Francesco Acerbi’s recent groin surgery, sidelining the veteran centre-back alongside Nicolo Zaniolo, Domenico Berardi, Destiny Udogie, and the suspended midfielder Sandro Tonali.

Although Gianluca Scamacca was recalled, he will not feature against Turkoiye. Significantly, his Atalanta BC teammate, Giorgio Scalvini will also now sit out the tournament as he is ruled out for the rest of the year thanks to an ACL injury. The loss of this rising Italian talent will certainly be a blow for the defending champions.

Juventus midfielder Nicolo Fagioli, who recently returned from a betting suspension, has been a surprising inclusion by Spalletti, especially so since his club teammate Manuel Locatelli has missed out.

Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma will once again captain the Azzurri, with former skipper Ciro Immobile left out due to a season plagued by injuries and declining form. This could pave the ay for Mateo Retegui to make an impression.

Italy are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation, with Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal. He should be protected by the back three of Matteo Darmian, Alessandro Buongiorno, and Alessandro Bastoni.

Nicolo Barella and Jorginho should hold the fort in the middle of the park, freeing up Andrea Cambiaso and Federico Dimarco to push forward down the flanks. Lorenzo Pellegrini and Giacomo Raspadori should act as dual playmakers behind Mateo Retegui, who will start upfront.

Probable Lineup (3-4-2-1): Donnarumma; Darmian, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Barella, Jorginho, Dimarco; Pellegrini, Raspadori; Retegui

Turkiye

Turkiye face some significant absences in their squad as they prepare for Euro 2024. Defensive duo Caglar Soyuncu and Ridvan Yilmaz are sidelined with injuries, along with former AS Roma forward Cengiz Under.

However, Italy-based players Zeki Celik, Kenan Yildiz, and captain Hakan Çalhanoglu are available. Çalhanoglu, who recently won the Serie A Midfielder of the Year award following a stellar season with Inter Milan, will be a key figure for Turkiye.

Like his Italian counterpart Luciano Spalletti, Turkiye’s head coach Vincenzo Montella has been experimenting with different formations. However, his first-choice goalkeeper should be Ugurcan Cakir, given Altay Bayindir’s lack of playing time at Manchester United.

Montella is expected to line his side up in a 4-2-3-1 formation and try to gain the upper hand in the middle of the park. Uğurcan Cakır should start in goal behind the back four of Mehmet Zeki Celik, Merih Demiral, Kaan Ayhan and Cenk Ozkacar.

Hakan Calhanoglu and Salih Ozcan should form the double pivot, freeing up the trio of Yunus Akgün, Arda Guler, and Kenan Yıldız to push forward. Finally, Enes Unal should act as the pivot in attack.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Ayhan, Ozkacar; Calhanoglu, Ozcan; Akgun, Guler, Yildiz; Unal

Key Stats

• Italy have not lost at home to Turkiye at the senior international stage, a run of 13 games across all competitions and friendlies.
• Italy have drawn their last two home games against Turkiye.
• Turkiye have failed to score in seven of their 13 senior matches against Italy.
• Turkiye have scored more than once on just one occasion against Italy in 13 clashes.

Player to Watch

Arda Guler

Embed from Getty Images

The Turkish sensation enjoyed a injury ravaged season at Real Madrid and was an unused substitute in the UEFA Champions League final. However, Guler has impressed when given the opportunity and averages a goal every 74 minutes in white.

Able to not just score but also craft opportunities, the youngster has it in him to orchestrate what should be a dynamic Turkish attack on their day. He now has the opportunity to showcase what he can in European football’s biggest tournament ahead of what should be a pivotal 2024/25 campaign with Real Madrid.

Prediction

Italy 1-1 Turkiye

Luciano Spalletti is likely to fine tune his tactics and is unlikely to have his side go into the clash in full swing. Vincenzo Montella will have an idea or two to stifle his countrymen. But it is difficult to see Turkiye end their winless streak against the Azzurri.