Is the EU aware of the seriousness of the situation?

If a favorable decision ensues from the summit Turkey, will come to terms with being a member of the Western club and the quests for an alternative that have existed for years will come to an end, as well as the "where do we belong?" controversy.

If a negative decision or another postponement decision ensues from the summit, Turkey will go through an open-eneded period of instability. This disappointment will create such an "explosion of identity" that this country will will probably be pushed into a climate where Islamist movements and ultranationalist parties would clash, a period in which Kurdish nationalism would explode and there would be coups.

That danger can be felt when one looks at the situation from here.

Turkey is not the hopeless candidate anymore
Europe is not yet aware of this. They are still in a "Turkey will not able to fulfil entirely the Copenhagen criteria and it will not manage to solve Cyprus. As a result it will fail automatically," kind of mood.

Yet, we are gradually being swept towards a new Titanic incident.

The EU Commission’s Director General for Enlargement Eneko Landaburu had high-level talks in Ankara last week. Also, early this week there was the EU-Turkey Mixed Economic Commission meeting in Istanbul.

Landaburu is very experienced. He knows his job. He does not exaggerate. He does not create empty expectations.

The messages he gave those around him were very interesting:

"Turkey is taking such steps that its chances as a candidate are growing increasingly. If it eliminates its shortcomings it will be a candidate that cannot be ignored."

The military will come out of the seventh package, however…
There is a rendezvous — in the short run — that Turkey is trying not to miss. That rendezvous is the "progress report" to be published by the EU Commission in October. If, in that report, the commission says, "Turkey has eliminated the shortcomings cited in the Accession Partnership Accord," or if it contents itself with drawing attention to a few remaining shortcomings, Ankara’s hand will be strengthened. This will become a more serious affair. If the commission takes the kind of stance that would mean it is supporting Turkey, the resistance put up by the capital cities of the member countries, will diminish,

It is to be able to create that momentum that the government presented the sixth package and, immediately after that, started the preparations for a seventh package.

According to both Landaburu and EU Parliament members, when the seventh package gets opened what will come out of it will be the military-civilian relations. Also, the government is expected to make it clear that reforms will be implemented in 2004 too, or, to put it more correctly, that it must be shown clearly that there will be no turning back from the steps being taken.

Both during his private talks and on CNN TURK’s MANSET program, Landaburu calrified the EU expectations regarding the military-civilian relationship.

According to him, the EU expects Turkey to abandon abruptly the 75-years-old practices, attach the Turkish Armed Forces to the Defense Ministry. The EU is displaying an understanding and patient stance.

What is expected is that the National Security Council (MGK) general secretariat should withdraw its representatives at various civilian institutions (Supreme Radio-TV Board (RTUK), the Higher Education Board (YOK), etc.). A civilian, for example, can be made MGK secretary-general. Here is another gesture that can be made: The "inspecting and orienting" phrase in the MGK Law can be amended. The more such gestures get made, the easier Turkey’s task will be in December 2004.

Turkey is going through such a process of significant changes to attain the EU target, it is coming under strain that I do not even want to think about the way such an emotional society would react if at the end of the road (December 2004) the EU says, "This will not do. Not enough reforms have been made."