‘Is Russia Losing Influence over CIS?’

Russian newspaper The Nezavisimaya Gazeta wrote in its Tuesday March 22 edition that the meeting was held last week and that the Council experts had pointed out that Russia has been gradually losing influence over CIS citizens and their elites. According to the Russian newspaper, it was asserted in the meeting that CIS countries disregard Russia for long-term and stable political interests and if this trend continues, they might approach countries such as China, Iran, the US, or the European Union (EU), with whom their interests are expected overlap within five to 10 years. The Nezavisimaya indicated that the Council experts had formulated three different scenarios for the CIS countries: "The First Scenario: The CIS is "frozen" in its present state and only unofficial contacts would be held among the leaders of the former Soviet republics. Cooperation among some certain institutions, mainly those set up for military and law-enforcement, could be maintained; however, if no reforms are made, the CIS might disintegrate according to this model.

The Second Scenario: It may be referred to as a "Mini Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR)". The CIS may also be preserved; however, a nucleus and conditions of how a new unification process could begin must be identified. There might be two such nuclei: One might be a Union of Russia and Belarus (though this becomes more difficult each year) and the other is Russia’s cooperation with Ukraine and Kazakhstan." The news article continued and explains the third scenario as a possible annulment of the CIS’s mission, which has become too expensive and ineffective; however, it is noted: "Such a move may cause political and public resistance."