IMF raises global economic growth forecasts

WASHINGTON

The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecasts to 3% for this year and 3.1% for next year.

In the July edition of its World Economic Outlook report, released Tuesday, the IMF growth forecast for the world economy this year is 0.2 percentage points higher than forecasts published in April, and the 2026 forecast is also 0.1 percentage points higher.

In the IMF’s April forecasts, the world economy was expected to grow by 2.8% this year and 3% next year.

The report says the upward revision in growth forecasts reflects stronger-than-expected demand due to expectations of high tariffs, lower average tariff rates than announced in April, improved financial conditions due to the weakening of the US dollar, and fiscal expansion in some major economies.

Risks to the economic outlook on the downside

The report said global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, in line with the April forecast.

The report said inflation is expected to remain above target in the US, while it is projected to be more moderate in other major economies.

The report said risks to the economic outlook are on the downside and that increases in effective tariff rates could lead to weaker growth.

The report also emphasizes that high levels of uncertainty could begin to put more pressure on economic activity.

The report warned that geopolitical tensions could disrupt global supply chains and push up commodity prices, and noted that larger budget deficits or increased risk aversion could raise long-term interest rates and tighten global financial conditions.

The report said that in a positive scenario, global growth could gain momentum if trade negotiations reach a predictable framework and tariffs are reduced.

Türkiye’s economic growth forecasts revised upward

The report said the Turkish economy is expected to grow 3% this year and 3.3% next year.

In its April forecasts, the IMF had predicted the Turkish economy would grow by 2.7% this year and 3.2% next year.

The report noted that the growth forecast for the US economy for 2025 has been raised from 1.8% to 1.9%, and its forecast for next year has been raised from 1.7% to 2%.

It noted that the growth forecast for the eurozone economy has been raised from 0.8% to 1% for this year, while the forecast for 2026 remains at 1.2%.

It said Germany’s growth forecast for this year has been raised from 0% to 0.1% and remains unchanged at 0.9% for next year, while France’s growth forecast for this year remains at 0.6% and 1% for next year.

The report said the growth forecast for the Italian economy has been raised from 0.4% to 0.5% for this year and kept at 0.8% for next year, while the growth forecast for Spain has been kept at 2.5% for this year and 1.8% for next year.

The IMF report also said the growth forecast for the UK economy has been raised from 1.1% to 1.2% for this year and remains at 1.4% for next year.

It also noted that the growth forecast for the Japanese economy has been raised from 0.6% to 0.7% for this year, while it has been lowered from 0.6% to 0.5% for next year.

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