How might the ‘axis of resistance’ respond to Israel’s escalation?

Iran and regional armed groups aligned with the country are preparing to respond to Israel over the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr earlier this week.

Self-styled as the “axis-of-resistance” for being at odds with United States-Israeli hegemony in the region, Iran and its allies will seek to restore deterrence against Israel without provoking a full-blown regional war, analysts told Al Jazeera, while warning that the space for miscalculation is razor-thin.

“One of the lines of argument in Iran right now is that they need to show a firm response and show their readiness to enter into a war in order to de-escalate,” said Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran and a non-resident fellow with the Middle East Council on Global Affairs think tank in Doha, Qatar.

“[Iran’s leaders think] that if they don’t do that, then Israel is not going to stop and after some time there might be Iranian officials being targeted openly by Israel in the country,” he added.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that it was his country’s “duty” to avenge Haniyeh, after he was killed in the Iranian capital Tehran while attending the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian on July 30.

Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack. Iran says Israel is behind the assassination.

Hours before Haniyeh’s death, Israel did claim responsibility for firing a missile at a residential building in Dahiya, a bustling district in Lebanon’s capital Beirut.

The attack killed Shukr – along with a woman and two children – in response to a projectile that killed 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah denied responsibility for that incident. This was reiterated by the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah who said that a response is “inevitable” following the attack in Beirut.

“I think the overall strategic outlook remains the same in the sense that Hezbollah does not want to escalate this into a massive war,” said Nicholas Blanford, an expert on Hezbollah with the Atlantic Council, a think tank in Washington, DC.

“It could be a staggered operation with Iran taking the lead and then followed by [attacks from] the other armed groups,”  he added.

“I think they will go for a high-profile military target.”

Battle of narratives

A New York Times investigation said that Haniyeh was killed by an Israeli bomb that was planted about two months ago in anticipation of his visit.

Negar Mortazavi, an expert on Iran and a senior fellow with the Center for International Policy (CIP), argues that Israel’s allies may push the narrative that the killing was a clandestine assassination, which Israel has carried out in the past against Iranian officials overseeing the country’s nuclear programme.

“Both sides have an interest in pushing a narrative,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera. “The Iranians want to push this as an attack on their sovereignty and Israel wants to say that this is just part of the ‘shadow war’ [a term used to reference prior clandestine operations].”

In addition, Mortazavi said she believes Israel is trying to provoke Iran to launch a major attack that would compel the US – which has signalled it does not want to get pulled into a regional war – to get directly involved on the side of Israel.

She referenced Israel’s strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria in April, which killed seven people including two Iranian generals.

US officials claimed that Israel “miscalculated” by striking the embassy since they did not expect Iran to respond so forcefully, according to the New York Times.

On April 13, Iran retaliated by firing a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel after saying it gave the US and its allies ample warning.

“The US [in April] basically made it clear to Israel that they will be there to defend them but not go on the offensive with them,” said Mortazavi, to explain why Israel did not escalate further after Iran’s missile and drone attack.

Azizi, the Iran expert, also said that Iran viewed the embassy attack as an “Israeli miscalculation,” but that the killing of Haniyeh is seen as a direct provocation.

“Based on what I can see, this time Iran might not actually give an exact prior warning to the US and US allies in the region [about its next attack on Israel],” he told Al Jazeera.

“Iran sees the previous format as not working to deter Israel.”

Higher stakes

Some analysts warn that a substantial attack by the “axis-of-resistance” risks killing Israeli military personnel or civilians, thereby raising the spectre of a major regional conflict.

Mohanad Hage Ali, an expert on Lebanon and a senior fellow with Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, noted that Hezbollah has announced it will retaliate against Israel for killing Shukr and that it is likely to participate in a joint attack with Iran.

“There is definitely a wider margin when Hezbollah wants to respond beyond the comfort zone of the past 10 months, because if Hezbollah opts to strike deep into Israeli territory then it entails a high risk of casualties,” he said.

Hage Ali also argues that Israel’s disproportionate response to earlier Hezbollah attacks has brought the region closer to war.

Back on October 8, for instance, Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli positions in Shebaa Farms, which is Lebanese territory occupied by Israel.

The Israelis, Hage Ali said, retaliated by firing deep into Lebanese territory, setting in motion the current cycle of escalatory violence.

The stakes are much higher now, acknowledges Azizi. He says that since Haniyeh’s death, Iran has been openly speaking about coordinating a response with its regional allies, giving up plausible deniability if Hezbollah or another member of the axis of resistance kills Israelis in an attack.

“That would then lead to a stronger Israeli response and then that would lead to more tit-for-tat [attacks] leading to war,” Hage Ali said.