Here come the US election 2024 celebrity endorsements – but do they matter?

The callers were so angry that security wasn’t taking any chances.

After the late shift ended, they escorted the nighttime host of WIRK radio to his car, lest any of the callers make good on their threats to “beat up” the host for playing the Dixie Chicks.

The year was 2003, and the band had just created a national uproar over the Iraq War.

“We do not want this war, this violence,” singer Natalie Maines told the crowd of the show in London, “and we’re ashamed that the President of the United States is from Texas”.

This rebuke of President George W. Bush led to massive boycotts, and for a time, it looked like the Dixie Chicks might never recover from speaking out against politics and war.

Now, according to multiple experts, the exact opposite is true. Celebrities are expected to make their opinions known, as many have during this year’s US presidential election. That includes the band now known as The Chicks, who performed the American national anthem on the final night of this year’s Democratic National Convention (DNC).

“The Chicks are the perfect example of our shifting cultural expectations,” said David Schultz, an author and political science professor at Minnesota’s Hamline University. “It used to be ‘shut up and sing,’” he noted, referring to the title of a book by conservative commentator Laura Ingraham. “Now it’s, ‘we want to hear you sing, but we also want to know where you stand.’”

Since celebrity endorsements on today’s scale are a relatively new phenomenon, it remains unclear what impact – if any – they may have on the outcome of an election.

However, every shred of influence could matter in a race this close.

“Let’s say Bad Bunny or LeBron James can move 5,000 to 10,000 voters in Nevada or Pennsylvania,” Schultz told Al Jazeera, referring to the Puerto Rican singer and the US basketball player. “Assuming they do move people, it could shift the state.”

Driving turnout

Multiple experts interviewed for this story agreed that celebrities will not change people’s minds about policy. Rather, their most significant impact will likely be seen in voter turnout.

A Taylor Swift or Bad Bunny fan may not have been planning to vote, but the fact that their favourite artist is encouraging them could be enough to get people to the polls.

For instance, after Swift used Instagram to endorse Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in September, roughly 400,000 people clicked on the voter information website she linked to in her post. It’s unclear how many of those people actually registered, but in 2023, the website Vote.org registered more than 35,000 new voters after a post by Swift linked to their site.

When asked about the impact of Swift’s 2024 endorsement, Karen Hult, a political scientist at Virginia Tech University, said, “It could make a difference”, particularly given Swift’s popularity with the key demographic of women aged 18 to 30. Similarly, experts like Schultz credit Oprah Winfrey for helping Barack Obama gain inroads with suburban women in his first presidential race.

Yet there’s also evidence to suggest Democrats are walking a tightrope. They want to tap into celebrities’ fan bases, but they want to shed the “elitist” tag Republicans are all too happy to attach to them every time a celebrity like Swift or Winfrey pipes up in Harris’s favour.

“Patriot, Comrade Kamala is putting together a RADICAL LEFT DREAM TEAM,” Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump – himself a long-time celebrity – wrote in a fundraising email in September. “She’s got HOLLYWOOD HACKS like Oprah Winfrey and Jamie Lee Curtis raising MILLIONS for her campaign.”

During the Democratic National Convention, Harris’s team stressed to reporters that celebrities did not drive the campaign. In his convention address, Obama noted that American culture “puts a premium on things that don’t last – money, fame, status, likes”.

However, in these final days of the campaign, celebrities have been at the forefront of both campaigns.

Billionaire Elon Musk has been stumping for Trump (and has given at least $132m to the former president and Republican politicians). At the same time, racist remarks made by a comedian speaking at a Trump rally have prompted Puerto Rican stars Bad Bunny, Jennifer Lopez, Ricky Martin and Luis Fonsi to publicly endorse Harris – with Lopez appearing at a rally days before the election.

Neither campaign responded to a request for comment from Al Jazeera. Still, the observers and experts interviewed for this story all agreed that endorsements are perhaps most valuable as an indicator of a campaign’s attempted identity.

Furthermore, they believe the growing dominance of celebrity endorsements provides a glimpse at where presidential campaigns are headed in the future.

A window into strategy

The Trump campaign may be led by a businessman who starred in one of the most popular shows on US television, The Apprentice, until 2015, but it lacks star power compared to the Democrats.

Trump does have some celebrity supporters, largely from the world of mixed martial arts, such as the head of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), Dana White, and slightly faded celebrities, such as wrestler Hulk Hogan and the singer Kid Rock. The wildly popular comedian and podcast host Joe Rogan has not officially endorsed Trump but has largely been approving in recent weeks.

But what Trump lacks in traditional celebrities, he has been making up for with tech moguls such as Musk.

Mark Shanahan, a political engagement professor at the University of Surrey, is paying close attention to the “tech bros” contingent that has attached itself to the Trump campaign. Aside from Musk, this contingent includes David Sacks, Marc Andreessen, and Trump’s running mate, JD Vance – all celebrities in their own way. They’re also potentially appealing to a specific type of voter.

“Tech bros are a different kind of celebrity, but for millions and millions of voters away from the coastal states, away from the seats of power, those people may well think someone like a Peter Thiel offers a solution and gives them an opportunity to be a millionaire or billionaire one day,” Shanahan told Al Jazeera.

The veteran political scientist added that it’s “notable” that the Harris campaign has brought in billionaire Mark Cuban for late-in-the-campaign appearances. Cuban, perhaps best known for owning the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks and starring as a judge on the reality show “Shark Tank,” first made his fortune in tech and the dot com boom. For Harris, Shanahan argues, Cuban could be a balancing force, and a sign that she, too, has friends and supporters in elite business circles.

Hult, the Virginia Tech professor, has also been observing the “tech bro” ties Trump has cultivated. She thinks that it could backfire, mobilising people against the candidate. After all, she points out, Musk is a highly divisive figure.

But the more interesting consideration, she says, is the strategy behind these ties. For example, she says she had previously heard “chatter” that the Harris campaign was coveting an endorsement from LeBron James. The thinking, she says, is that James could help to increase turnout among Black men, a demographic in which Trump is gaining ground. James, whom Fox News presenter Laura Ingraham once told to “shut up and dribble”, endorsed Harris in the campaign’s final days.

Hult also says both political parties may trend towards “microtargeting” in their future courting of celebrity endorsements. More specifically, they may spend more time working to secure the support of social media influencers.

There are already clear signs of this – this election has been referred to as “the podcast election” – and some studies indicate social media influencers are more likely to mobilise voters than a celebrity.

For now, it is clear both campaigns need any kind of edge they can get, be that a celebrity, a podcaster, or the backlash to someone from one of those camps.

Shanahan noted that the margins are thin and the stakes are high.

“If Trump comes in, all bets are off,” he said. “Will the US leave NATO? In trade, the only tool he uses is war. So, we’re probably looking at a realignment in global geopolitics.”

And the Democrats will be using everything in their toolbox – including celebrity endorsements – to stop that.