Great opportunity for Syria, Turkey

From the perspective of security, the 1998 Adana agreement is working better than anyone expected. There has been no sign of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorist organization, either in Syria or the Syrian-controlled Bakaa Valley. In general, Syrian authorities have been responding to the demands of the Turkish security services almost immediately. Even the Turkish military frequently displays its happiness with the success of the Adana Agreement.

The issue of Hatay
As you know, Syria has never officially accepted Hatay’s inclusion into Turkey. Until the last few years Syrian tourist maps and history books continued to place Hatay inside Syria. However, Syria never made an official grab for the territory and neither Turkey nor Syria have really discussed the issue. Throughout the 1990s Turkey avoided taking an official stance on the Hatay issue, mainly to deflect attention from the question of its borders.

In reality, it seems that Damascus has relented on the Hatay issue. Or at least that’s the implicit impression Assad gave during a recent interview.

However, a president of just two years cannot just go on TV and say: "I’m recognizing Turkey’s borders. I’m leaving Hatay to Turkey." The main reason is that Syria cannot afford to be seen as weak — a Syria willing to give up Hatay might be perceived willing to give up the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights as well. The Syrian old guard would probably react quite strongly against such a situation.

That’s why Assad is following a pragmatic approach. He is not raising the Hatay issue, instead hoping for it to be slowly forgotten. His message to Turkey seems to follow the same strategy: Don’t raise the issue either. Let’s both forget about it, and as bilateral relations strengthen the Hatay issue can be forgotten.

In short, if Ankara desires it, the Hatay issue will be forgotten. If Ankara digs up the issue, Syria will go on the defensive and the issue will resurface.

The issue of water supply
The water issue, once a great point of contention between the two countries, seems to have lost its urgency from Damascus’ viewpoint.

The Syrians are happy with the 1987 agreement they signed with former President Turgut Ozal. President Assad, in his interview with me, said Syria is getting plenty of water, even implying they had withdrawn their past objections.

But Syria has not entirely abandoned its objections.

They still want Turkey to fulfill the promise it made in the 1987 agreement, by providing a water agreement conforming to international law. It also wants its current supply-rate of 500 cubic meters per second increased to 700. However, these demands are not urgent and Syria is no longer trying to rouse the Arab world against Turkey.

Actually, there has also been a change in Turkey’s attitude toward Syria. In the past, bureaucrats in Ankara used to say there was no spare water and rejected any further agreements. Now, out of respect for international law and sympathy for the Syrian position, Ankara has relaxed its policies somewhat.

In short, water supply is no longer a great problem.

The Kurdish issue
The Kurdish issue that divided the two countries five years ago is now pushing the countries together.

Syria used to hold the Kurdish card against Turkey. When Turkey complained, the Syrians would say, "First, solve your own Kurdish issue."

But since then international developments have led both Turkey and Syria to become frightened by the establishment of a Kurdish state. The countries are now cooperating to avoid this by formulating joint policies. Turkey, for the first time ever, seems to have found an ally.

The two countries need each other
It’s obvious we don’t need detailed studies to investigate the matter — Syria needs Turkey and Turkey needs Syria.

For Turkey, Syria is a door to the Middle East and the Arab world. Each year more than 25,000 trucks carry Turkish products to the Middle East via Syria. Turkish relations with the Arab world are normalizing, in large part due to Syria.

For Syria, Turkey is a door that opens to the West, the Caucasus and the Balkans. Turkey is an influence preventing Syria from being crushed by the United States and Israel.

Leaders from both countries should forget the past issues and begin their relations from scratch.

The opportunity Assad’s visit presents should not be ignored.