FROM CYPRUS TO BAGHDAD

In truth, nobody expects a real settlement from these negotiations. The UN wants to see how flexible both sides’ ‘red lines’ are. The groundwork for a permanent settlement is expected to be laid during the March 22 four-way meeting, which is why Ankara’s ‘shortened’ list of demands presented to Washington last week is very important. The text of the list is different from similar documents previously presented by Denktas. It’s more realistic, say analysts.

It seems that the outcome of the referendums to be held on Cyprus will hinge on developments this week. Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul will represent our country there. Deputy Chief of General Staff Ilker Basbug is also set to pay a visit to the island this week, which is very important for the future of the talks, since the military believes that certain points in the Annan plan are unsustainable and would leave the security of the Turkish Cypriots in an unacceptable lurch.

The Annan plan proposes that 6,000 Turkish soldiers stay on the island after an agreement is reached. Although Ankara has no objections to this number, there are still questions about the remaining 30,000 soldiers who are expected to be re-deployed home. This is a matter of military planning and strategy.

In the talks’ final stage, Ankara will probably request that Washington put pressure on the Greek side so as to protect the Turkish Cypriots’ red lines as much as possible. Perhaps we should interpret Ankara’s current ‘wait and see’ Iraq policy from a similar perspective. Maybe it’s not perfect timing, but three Turkmen leaders were killed and Turkmen offices were attacked last week when everybody’s attention was focused on the Cyprus issue. Moreover, Iraq’s Governing Council came close to approving an interim constitution which dissatisfied Turkmen groups. According to news accounts, the only move from Ankara following these unpleasant developments was to summon an official from the US Embassy to deliver a general reproach. I hope this ‘resentment policy’ – which could even be interpreted as Ankara’s indifference – will change after the Cyprus issue is resolved!”