Fate – Cyprus

We can’t deny the role of history. Sometimes, wave after wave carry a person or the whole nation at its crest to a tranquil harbor called success. Another person or a nation may just drown as they try to survive.

Most of us don’t know that achieving our good intentioned desires could confine us to an awful fate. We are getting closer to our disaster as we resolutely continue to follow the road we chose. That’s why, God says in the Koran, "You don’t know want is good for you, I do."

The current phase in the Cyprus problem makes me think of such matters.

People may ask, "Why should a potion of an island with a population of 200,000, should affect the fate of 70 million Turks." However, numerical figures are not important in a world full of symbols. Kardak was just two small rocks in the Aegean Sea. However, if left alone, it could have led to a destructive war between the two countries.

The real danger in Cyprus is not a war, but the potential for instability that an agreement reached through a faulty negotiation process might create.

According to the media, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, in his invitation letter, told both sides that their attendance in the Feb. 10 meeting would mean that they had accepted the preconditions outlined in the 148th paragraph of the report attached to U.N. Security Council resolution 1475. In other words, Annan will personally fill in the sections, where the two sides don’t reach an agreement and will present the final version of the document to a referendum.

When Annan starts filling in the points of contention in the plan, he will need to look out for the Greek Cypriot side. Greek Cypriots can easily reject the plan at the referendum, because they will know that their European Union membership is assured. On the other side, Turks will be pressured into accepting the agreement with threats such as, "neither you, nor Turkey will be admitted into the EU if there is no solution." Turkish Cypriots will be told that their state would continue to be unrecognized and the embargo imposed would go on.

If they restart under these conditions, the new negotiations will not be a true negotiation. In other words, both sides will know that they might get the chance to voice their opinions on important matters, called points of contention, but eventually what Annan says will be included in the final document. As a result, the final document, which will not include the majority of our objections, will not be too different from the current document.

After Annan puts the final touches on the document, there will be no chance to object, ask for amendments or stop the whole process. In any case, because the sides are not asked to sign the final agreement, the matter will directly put to a referendum.

Under these conditions, the problem does not lie with whether the government has the authority to approve this process or not. Of course it does. The problem is that the "negotiation" process is faulty.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan probably did not know all the implications of accepting Annan’s preconditions in Davos. Now, we don’t have the right to question the method, because statements made by the prime ministers are internationally binding.

Unfortunately, the document that will be put to a referendum on April 21 will be far behind the "attitude document" the government signed, will not be negotiated, won’t be supported by Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) President Rauf Denktas and will create a split in the Turkish and Turkish Cypriot media.

Then discussions will not center on defensive arguments such as, "We know the Annan plan is not perfect" or "Look, Greek Cypriots also have objections," but will be based on the final document not assuring the continued political and economic existence of Turkish Cypriots in the EU.

In order to avoid this feeling of betrayal to cover the whole country, it will be absolutely necessary for the EU to agree on Turkey’s membership and give it a date to start the membership negotiations.

I don’t know how I can voice my fears. Written words are not loud enough. The fate this ignorant group is approaching cheerfully seems like a cobra snake. It waits quietly. We can’t even hear the hissing sound.