EU up in arms, Paris in panic

Another group that is applying pressure on Verheugen is the governments of member countries. Their problem is actually with their public opinions. They want Verheugen to include as many preconditions as he can in his report. This is their way of overcoming the opposition. If Verheugen does as he is told, they will be able to argue that Turkey will not become a member immediately, citing all the conditions attached.

I noticed that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also aware of the state of affairs. During his joint press conference with German Prime Minister Gerhard Shroeder he kept emphasizing the fact that on Dec. 17, Turkey would be starting the accession negotiations, not becoming a member.

France is panicking
The state of affairs in France is significantly worse.

I spent last weekend in Paris. I attended a conference. I checked the local papers. The only issue is Turkey.

French President Jacques Chirac ultimately succumbed to domestic pressure and said, "Turkey’s full membership will be put to a public referendum in 10-15 years from now."

Chirac said this in order to separate the issues of Turkey’s membership and the EU Constitution and become a leading player in domestic politics. Chirac did not do this to put more obstacles in front of Turkey’s membership.

Additionally, we should not ignore a fact. After Turkey completes a decade of negotiations, reaches an agreement and all governments sign it, France can’t turn around and reject the agreement in a referendum.

This French decision also relaxed other countries. Now they will be able to tell their domestic critics that there is nothing to worry about, because if everything else fails there is the French referendum.

If the EU Commission includes many preconditions in its report to alay the fears, we should not be too surprised.

Let them put as many preconditions as they can. Let them hold as many referendums as they can. It won’t matter.

The most important thing is the start of the negotiations. All these preconditions will be forgotten in a few years. The only thing that will remain will be the ongoing negotiations and a Turkey close to full membership.

It doesn’t matter how you score a goal. Is the referee counting the goal?

That’s what matters.

Can Verheugen surprise us?
A single utterance by Verheugen while answering questions at the European Parliament last week has stayed with me.

After telling parliamentarians that their criticisms directed against him were unfair, Verheugen said he had not shared his opinions on Turkey with anyone, adding that no one knew what the recommendation section of the report would contain. He also said that when they saw the report (most probably on Wednesday) they would be surprised and would realize how unfair their criticisms were. He also claimed that the Turkish government would find some portions of the report very hard to swallow.

These exchanges made me sick in the stomach.

Verheugen is either making a very serious warning or is trying to keep the conservatives quiet.

As I was talking with the prime minister in Berlin, I noticed that he was also aware of the matter, but had ignored it. What is important for him is the result of the summit on Dec. 17.

What could Verheugen be saying?

There is one sentence important for me and that is Verheugen saying openly that the EU needs to start negotiations with Turkey, declaring that most of the preconditions are satisfied.

The rest is not important.

If the recommendation is clear enough to result in Turkey getting a date to start negotiations at the EU summit on Dec. 17, it would be satisfactory. It doesn’t matter if a different negotiation method or an additional set of preconditions are attached due to domestic considerations.

None of these are important.

The only thing we want is the start of negotiations.

There are two more issues that we should be aware of.

1. If there is to be a new method of negotiations, it will not be applied only on Turkey. It will also be applicable to all countries that will start negotiations after us. The commission cannot formulate a method of negotiations exclusively for Turkey. They told us repeatedly that Turkey would be treated no differently from other candidates. If there is a change in method, it will be applicable for all countries that are yet to start negotiations.

2. We should not be frightened of six monthly reports, instead of annual ones, that will inspect Turkey’s policies during the negotiations. Are we frightened of more inspections because we are going to try to trick them?

Still, I don’t feel entirely at ease.

I didn’t like what Verheugen said.

Officials from Brussels I was able to talk to did not know what the commissioner is thinking. He will most probably present the recommendation section to other commissioners on Wednesday morning.

If I learn anything, I will write about it tomorrow.

My impression of what I gathered from my talks yesterday within the EU Commission was that Verheugen was not preparing any bad surprises for us. I believe the report will be very positive.