EU should give Turkey a date next spring

The European Commission will also express its views on Croatia’s full membership request. Further steps towards the Union for the western Balkan states will also be decided on. The EU will also sign its final accession with the 10 new member states in May 2004. The Cyprus issue should be solved by then.

The most important reason for the EU taking critical decisions on its future next spring is that the European Commission’s term of office will end soon. After that date, Europe will have to deal with parliamentary elections and the formation of a new commission. The decision on Turkey will be left to this new commission. Its main duty, however, won’t be enlargement, but rather the economy.

As the recent Brussels summit ended in a fiasco for enlargement, there was another very important development which also concerns us. European Commission head Romano Prodi received a letter signed by the leaders of Germany and France. This letter expressed the opposition of the ‘Group of Six’ – the countries just mentioned plus Britain, Austria, Sweden and the Netherlands – to the expanding EU budget. They demanded that expenditures remain one percent of GNP as they have been. This budget is to be in force from 2007 to 2013. The consequences of the Group Six approach are obvious: A reduction of funds, and more problems for new members. This also demonstrates that the rich countries of Europe no longer want to spend money for the joint budget as they have previously.

This is a key reason why Turkey didn’t get an encouraging message. The phrase we often hear ‘Turkey should overcome its macroeconomic imbalances and structural problems’ reflects the EU’s consideration of its new economic situation vis-a-vis Turkey’s membership bid.

Europe will take its critical decisions on enlargement next spring, and the same goes for Cyprus. A ‘solution’ is expected from the Cypriot Turks and Turkey by May 1. With all this in mind, I say that Europe should decide on beginning talks with Turkey at its summit next spring. Otherwise we can expect to see our bid begin to peter out.”