Erdogan and Gul give important clues

A new road map regarding Cyprus
Immediately after the prime minister was interviewed on ATV, Abdullah Gul took part in Cafe Siyaset, the program presented by Murat Yetkin and Mete Belovacikli on CNN TURK.

Both the prime minister and the deputy prime minister made interesting remarks on Cyprus.

After Erdogan made it clear that he sticks to what he had said about Denktas in the past and that he will maintain the same stance, Gul provided a more detailed road map.

As far as I can see Turkey will keep up its efforts for a solution until May 2004. The Foreign Ministry has two alternatives on its mind:

* If, by May 2004, a solution can be reached — after rearranging certain parts of the Annan Plan, parts that have been found hazardous — the Turkish Cypriot side will be able to switch to full membership in the European Union.

However, that would depend on another factor as well. In other words, that can be achieved only if the Greek Cypriots adopted a more flexible stance.

Now that they have gotten what they wanted the Greek Cypriots are expected to adopt a different stance.

This alternative involves a big advantage. Since things would remain within the framework of the Annan Plan the Turkish side would gain significant advantages. It would govern itself, stand on its feet.

* If no solution can be reached by May 2004, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) will have to wait until Turkey becomes a full member of the EU.

In that case the KKTC would not be able to get as many advantages as it would under the Annan Plan. The KKTC would have to content itself with the EU’s "acquis". In other words all it would get would be enhanced minority rights.

Furthermore, since the KKTC would have to wait for no less than 10 years for Turkey’s full membership, there would be tension in the KKTC. Also the international courts may decide that the Turkish side should pay compensation. Those would be big sums.

Turkey had abandoned some time ago its policy of annexing the KKTC. Now it is putting pressure on the EU. It is telling the EU that they made a big mistake by admitting into their ranks a Cyprus that has not solved its problems, and that now they should force the Greek Cypriots to reach a solution. Both Erdogan and Gul insist on this point.

In this framework, we would be indicating that we do not trust the KKTC at all if we described as "an operation aimed at undermining the North" the proposals Greek Prime Minister Simitis made during his latest trip to Cyprus and the meeting he held with the Turkish Cypriot opposition.

On the contrary we can see this initiative as progress — not forgetting about the ulterior motives. Indeed, by not reacting adversely the government has shown that it has a different interpretation of this development.

Let us wait and see to what extent the new Cyprus road will materialize.

Gul has done the right thing
The foreign minister’s trip to the Middle East has been criticized by certain circles.

Frankly, I cannot understand the reason for that criticism.

There are those who say that the AKP has not taken part in the EU’s latest enlargement photo, that there is the impression that in the wake of the "motion" incident the AKP does not favor cooperation with the USA, and that, on top of all these, the AKP should not now be in the same photo with the "losers".

I think this is a misleading evaluation.

Turkey is the most important country of the region and it must take part in an assessment meeting with its neighbors. It must learn what they are thinking and it must disclose its views. In fact, thanks to Turkey’s presence a relatively balanced communique has ensued from the meeting.

To the extent that Turkey makes its policies clear the more room it will have for action.

And it would inspire confidence to those around it.

Then it would find it easier to get rid of the "unreliable ally" tag.