Election Day in US

Zogby, which made the best prediction for 2000 elections, wrote a survey for Reuters news agency. According to the results, Kerry has begun to increase his lead in 10 critical states over Bush. Despite the loss of Kerry’s slight advantage with voters nationwide, Kerry could win still the race by garnering more electoral votes.

The Washington Post, an American newspaper, declared that Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico, were the battleground states where Kerry leads 50 to 48. In other states, Bush received 49 percent versus Kerry’s 48. According to the Washington Post, both candidates have 48 percent of the votes. Most polls sample eligible electors, not registered ones. If the participation ratio is high, Kerry will benefit.

In the US election system, a candidate who has one more popular vote in a particular state will win all of the states electoral delegates. To win the election, a presidential candidate needs at least 270 of the 538 electoral delegates. The number of a state’s delegates are determined according to the states population. According to Zogby’s latest poll, Kerry will win 34 of the 131 electoral delegates in 10 critical states.

Apocalypse scenario in the elections

Since the race is so close and the candidates are receiving almost equal support, a deadlock, similar to the one in 2000, is possible. Should the election become another legal battle, than the elections outcome could take months.

Another possibility is an even split of the electoral delegates: 269 for each candidate. If this occurs than the newly elected Speaker of the House will vote to elect the president. This situation favors Bush whose republican party controls the US House of Representatives.