DYNAMICS OF CHANGE

The recent report prepared by UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan is a turning point in both Cyprus’ history and the international community’s view of Turkey’s Cyprus policy. In short, the report fingers the Greek Cypriot administration for the failure to find a solution for the island. Annan stated that the Greek Cypriots rejected not only the agreement document, but also the solution itself. In addition, Annan praises the Turkish side’s stance in favor of a solution but adds that it was late in this constructive stance. Even if Ankara considers the European Union mistaken to have guaranteed the Greek Cypriot administration membership even without a solution and so removed any incentive for them, Annan’s statements show that the Turkish side was late to grasp the encouraging atmosphere of becoming an EU member. Then Annan announced that there is no longer any reason to continue the Turkish Cypriots’ isolation. However, he also asked that the existing UN Security Council resolutions on Cyprus not be violated and that no policy tending towards making the division of the island permanent should be encouraged. What will happen now? Washington – which welcomed Annan’s plan warmly, thinking it establishes a base for ending the Turkish Cypriots’ isolation – wants to announce steps towards this end before US President George W. Bush’s official visit to Turkey on June 26.

Bush is planning to meet leaders of different religious groups before the month-end NATO summit in Istanbul. Bush will of course mention the issue of the Heybeliada Seminary of Fener Greek Patriarch Bartholomeos. Maybe this school can’t be opened in the next couple of weeks, but Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan can immediately signal his political will on this issue. This is Washington’s expectation.

Washington considered the PPK terrorist organization’s renewed call for war old news, because US officials know that the organization has never had a peaceful, terror-free political identity. For this reason, the PKK has always had a place on the US list of terrorist groups. Even if this is the case, the PKK’s latest threat might have large consequences both in terms of Turkey’s EU agenda and relations with the US. The US might not have a military initiative to erase the PKK presence from northern Iraq before Bush’s visit to Turkey. Washington officials are stressing the surprise element in a possible initiative against the PKK and refusing to speak about timing. In addition, the US thinks that the way to head off problems in Turkish-EU relations due to the PKK is to continue efforts to address shortcomings in implementing the Copenhagen criteria.”