Duterte legacy in the balance as he seeks return to Davao stronghold

Davao, Philippines – Former President Rodrigo Duterte has registered to run for his past position as mayor of the southern Philippine city of Davao, in a potential last-ditch effort to save his family’s faltering political dynasty.

The influence of the former president, notorious for his brutal “war on drugs” that saw thousands of extrajudicial killings, has waned in recent months after his family’s alliance with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr began to unravel.

Duterte’s son, current Davao Mayor Sebastian Duterte, will be his father’s running mate.

The powerhouse political family supported Marcos Jr’s successful presidential bid in 2022, but the alliance between the two families has unravelled in recent months.

Vice President Sara Duterte, once seen as a probable successor to her father, resigned from her post of education secretary in June and has lost influence within the Marcos administration.

The decision by her 79-year-old father to run for mayor comes as he faces an investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC) into extrajudicial killings during the drug war. Lawyer Kristina Conti said last month that the ICC could file a warrant of arrest later this year.

Duterte remains popular in Davao, long the family stronghold, but even there, his influence may be waning.

Last month, Philippine authorities arrested religious leader and longtime Duterte ally Apollo Quiboloy, who faces child sex trafficking charges in the Philippines and the United States and had been hiding in a compound in the city. The arrest was seen as a strike by Marcos Jr against the Dutertes.

Quiboloy, who calls himself the “Appointed Son of God,” announced on Tuesday that he would run for Senate in next year’s election.

“After Quiboloy’s arrest, the possibility of arresting [Duterte] through Interpol and local police that is outside the control of the Dutertes seems more likely,” said Tyrone Velez, a columnist for the local publication MindaNews.

Failed drug war

In March, Sebastian Duterte announced he would continue the drug war started by his father, who had been Davao mayor for some 20 years before he became president and earned the nickname “The Punisher” for his brutal policies. In the ensuing days, at least seven drug suspects were killed in police encounters.

The revival of the drug war was seen as an act of defiance by the Dutertes and it was not long before Marcos Jr responded.

In May, the president removed Davao police chief Richard Bad-ang – a close Duterte ally who had been appointed to the post just before the killings – and dozens of other police officers. The Davao regional police office also announced a probe into the seven deaths.

In July, a new police chief was finally appointed after being replaced three times in one day in a process Sebastian Duterte said was politically motivated.

Drug killings have decreased – but have not stopped – in the Philippines since Marcos Jr took power, and in recent months, he has called for a “bloodless” drug war.

Sixty-three people were killed in the central region of Cebu during anti-drug operations in 2024, according to the Dahas Project, an initiative of the University of the Philippines that tracks extrajudicial drug killings.

Davao police killed a suspected drug dealer in a shootout on September 17, the first drug killing in the city since March, according to the Dahas Project.

Sebastian Duterte probably wanted to resume the drug war to solidify his support within Davao, Velez said, following criticism over his “lackadaisical leadership” and frequent absences from City Hall.

“His camp must have thought restarting the drug war could make him a Digong 2.0 and make him relevant,” Velez said, using a popular nickname for Rodrigo Duterte. “But it was called off after a week.”

The killings also took place as news of a potential ICC arrest warrant began to swirl.

Duterte withdrew the Philippines from the ICC in 2019. But the court has said it still has jurisdiction over alleged crimes before that time, meaning Duterte could still face prosecution for thousands of killings.

Closing in

Removing pro-Duterte police officials has given Marcos Jr tighter control over anti-drug operations and taken power away from the Dutertes, even within Davao, Velez said.

“The Marcoses want police directors in both the city and the Davao region who are not under the influence of the Dutertes.”

The Marcos administration has also pushed out members of government loyal to Quiboloy, said Aries Arugay, chairperson of the Department of Political Science at the University of the Philippines, causing his national influence to “wane” in recent months.

Quiboloy, who was Duterte’s spiritual adviser during his presidency, is himself a longtime player in Philippine politics. He supported Duterte’s 2016 campaign, lending the candidate his private jet, and supported Marcos Jr in 2022.

But as the Duterte-Marcos alliance frayed, Quiboloy used his television network, Sonshine Media Network International (SMNI), to broadcast misinformation and attack the Dutertes’s critics.

In 2023, SMNI’s YouTube channel was taken down by Google and its broadcast licence suspended by the Philippines’s telecommunications commission. SMNI’s Facebook page was also no longer available. Earlier this year, Quiboloy claimed without evidence that Marcos Jr and his wife, Liza, were conspiring with Washington to assassinate him. Marcos rejected the allegations.

Quiboloy, 74, was finally arrested after a weeks-long operation in which hundreds of his supporters formed human barricades to block authorities from searching inside the compound of his church, the Kingdom of Jesus Christ.

Marcos Jr has indicated he is open to extraditing Quiboloy to the United States after the completion of domestic criminal proceedings.

The Marcos administration wants to “communicate that they are serious in working with the US in a deeper and more comprehensive manner,” Arugay said. “He [Marcos] doesn’t want to be seen as weak.”

Quiboloy’s arrest and Duterte’s decision to run for mayor have put Duterte and Marcos Jr on a collision course ahead of the country’s May 2025 congressional elections.

But while polls suggest Filipinos may be tiring of the feuding political dynasties, the opposition remains weak and voters have few alternatives. A survey conducted last week by Pulse Asia showed Sara Duterte’s approval rating fell by nine points to 60 percent, while Marcos Jr’s approval rating fell by three points to 50 percent.

“Filipinos do not like what they’re seeing, that they’re fighting and not working together,” said Cleve Arguelles, chief executive of the polling firm WR Numero Research.

“Both of them are being punished.”