Deciphering Turkiye’s attitude to Israel-Hamas conflict

Deciphering Turkiye’s attitude to Israel-Hamas conflict

As the conflict between Israel and Hamas enters its second week, regional actors are vying for a mediation role to help de-escalate tensions. One such actor is Turkiye, which maintains relations with both the conflicting parties.

Reports on Wednesday suggested that Ankara was involved in mediating the release of hostages taken by Hamas, including senior officers and civilians. Given its recent improvement in relations with Israel and its close ties with Palestinian factions, namely Fatah and Hamas, the Turkish leadership believes it is well positioned to play a mediating role in this ongoing escalation.

In the early 2000s, Turkiye initiated the Ankara Forum as a confidence-building mechanism between Palestine and Israel. At that time, Palestinian and Israeli leaders alike described the forum as a “significant opportunity” for establishing peace in the region. However, like all previous initiatives to end this long-standing conflict, the Ankara Forum also did not bring peace. Turkiye’s current attempt to mediate faces even greater challenges, as the Israel-Palestine conflict is experiencing its most critical and devastating episode in decades.

Turkiye is a regional player intimately familiar with the conflicting parties, making it an influential actor, especially regarding Hamas. After the 2011 uprising in Syria, Hamas’ political leadership moved to Turkiye. Israel has long accused Ankara of maintaining close ties with Hamas and not designating the Palestinian group as a terrorist organization. While some reports suggest that several Hamas officials were recently expelled from Turkiye following the Turkish-Israeli reconciliation, this issue remains a point of contention between Ankara and Tel Aviv.

Turkiye is a regional player intimately familiar with the conflicting parties, making it an influential actor

Sinem Cengiz

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last month met Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in person for the first time as they held a discussion on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. A few days before this meeting, Erdogan hosted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an effort to unify the Palestinian factions. Turkiye not only manages a delicate balancing act between Israel and Palestine, but it also strikes a balance between the two main Palestinian groups. Ankara also aims to exert its influence on Hamas to minimize the latter’s engagement with Iran and Hezbollah. Turkiye continues to advocate for a two-state solution while advancing its relations with Israel on various fronts, including economic, energy and political matters.

Erdogan has spoken with both Abbas and Israeli President Isaac Herzog, offering to mediate upon their request, but Israel believes it is too early for such talks. Turkiye has also talked to other regional actors, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt, regarding ways to end the conflict.

For Ankara, there are several reasons to assume this role. Firstly, it genuinely wants to prevent the conflict from escalating and perhaps growing into a regional war, which would be detrimental to its own interests. Secondly, Ankara is concerned about the potential spillover effects of the conflict, particularly on Syria. Thirdly, it recognizes the complexity of the conflict, with various actors and motivations involved, including Iran’s role and Netanyahu’s domestic interests, which means a cautious approach is necessary. Lastly, it seeks prestige on the regional stage in taking on this role.

Although Turkiye was one of the first countries to recognize the state of Israel in 1948 — for which it was criticized for years by the Arab world — it has always remained sensitive to the rights of the Palestinian cause. Despite their differing motivations and ideas about how best to stand up for the rights of the Palestinian people, all the political parties in Turkiye unite under the same banner to call on the world to take a stand for Palestinian rights. The Palestinian cause is a matter that all Turkish political parties can agree on and adopt a shared rhetoric toward.

Erdogan has long been an advocate of the Palestinian cause personally, often bringing it to the world’s attention

Sinem Cengiz

Erdogan has long been an advocate of the Palestinian cause personally, often bringing it to the world’s attention and clashing with Netanyahu. However, in the current episode, it has been noticeable that Turkiye initially adopted more measured rhetoric compared to previous escalations, focusing more on de-escalating tensions. Ankara has called on both sides to exercise restraint and act reasonably, emphasizing that a just peace would benefit everyone.

However, after a few days, Erdogan slightly harshened his tone, describing the latest actions in Gaza as “not a war, it is a massacre.” While this statement may test Turkiye’s recent rapprochement with Israel, it preserves the president’s image as a world leader who is in support of the Palestinian cause. The change in his tone was most likely related to pressure from both the Turkish public and the opposition parties. It was also related to the changing dynamics in the conflict, which caused a tremendous amount of bloodshed and suffering.

Just as the world was taken by surprise by the Hamas attack on Israel, Turkiye was similarly caught off guard. Ankara remains uncertain how events will unfold, which is reflected in its cautious approach. Turkiye faces domestic political and economic challenges, the risk of the conflict expanding regionally and pressure from segments of society that support the Palestinian cause, all of which urge it to find a way to act proactively. However, as the conflict escalates, it might prove challenging for any actor to pursue a mediation role.

• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz

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