Cyprus tension

In the light of reports, just like Demirel, Denktas seemed to see, "what is unlikely first," and then focus on a new solution. A cabinet lead by Serdar Denktas may rise amid this chaos. Regardless of his low vote capacity, Denktas’s DP may become the reconciliation point between the other two fronts. Unless he protects the interests of the KKTC and agrees to start negotiations.

Eight days have passed since the results of the elections became official. The 45 day long process continues. According to this calculation, there are 37 days left to form the new government. Or else, the elections will be repeated.

Sources from the island underlined that this is not a high possibility. But the signal that will determine the end of this process will not come from Cyprus but from Ankara. The approach of Ankara will lead the founding of the new government as it may also pave the way for new elections.

If Ankara decides to start negotiations in any case, this may cause total deadlock on the island and pave way for new elections.

While talking about Ankara, it is necessary to mention some debates that dominate the capital city.

As far as it seems, two fronts openly reveal their stance. It is hard to tell that there is harmony between the priorities and goals of the Foreign Ministry and the military. To find the balance is the mission of the prime minister. In this light, Erdogan denies the differing views between the ministry and the military. On the other hand, the serenity of President Sezer is also worth mentioning.

There are two main topics in the discussions.

First of all, the fundamentals and possibility of the negotiation is important. Secondly, will Ankara will be adamant on its thesis.

The Foreign Ministry believes starting negotiations is vital for relations between Turkey and the European Union. In this light, the ministry is working on different plans.

Drawing new maps referring to the share of the island is among theses plans. In some of the maps, all of Guzelyurt is left to Greek Cypriots. It is also planned to maintain the guarantor state status of Greece and Turkey. Turkey also considers to gradually decrease the number of soldiers on the island to 6,000.

Turkey will also revise this figure when it becomes a member of the EU. But it wants to limit Greek Cypriots purchasing homes and becoming business partners to companies in Northern Cyprus until then.

It also agrees that the 5 percent mentioned in the Annan plan for the settlers from Greece and Turkey is suitable.

But Chief of General Staff and the Foreign Ministry could not reach an agreement on certain issues such as the presence of Turkish soldiers and guarentorship as well as Turco-Greek balance.

The military does not want to tie Turkey’s guarentorship rights to EU law and rejects the offer of the ministry.

Their alternative plan is as follows:

The Greek side can become a member to the EU in May 2004 during the negotiations referring to the Annan plan. During this time, the EU can start negotiation with the KKTC as the other founder state. Both sides can benefit from EU funds in order to provide an economic balance between them, this would also mean the end of the embargo.

The EU can also begin negotiations with Turkey in Dec. 2004 allowing Turkey and the KKTC to become members of the bloc at the same time.

A meeting is inevitable to make this decision. But another problem also emerges here.

Government is adamant to make this a summit while the military insists on a MGK resolution on this issue.

In other words, the agenda of Ankara is heating up and New Year begins with tension in Cyprus.