Cyprus Steamer With US Paddle Wheel
Ambassador to Nicosia Michael Klosson were in the town. Cyprus Summit in Ankara has been carefully monitored. Assad’s trip, which could have got on Americans’ nerves had it taken place before the Iraq war, was not considered a big deal at all.
The U.S. government reacted quite reasonably about Assad’s visit. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher responding to the question, ‘Are you concerned about the official visit of the Syrian leader to Turkey?’ replied ‘No.’ Even my friends from the Jewish lobby did not seem very bothered. They were of the opinion: "Turkey could engage with Syria for its own interests. But we do not consider this as an alternative or a step to weaken relations with Israel or the United States."
Although there still remains a small minority who tries to link Ankara’s efforts for good neighborly ties with Damascus and Tehran to the ‘Islamist’ roots of the ruling AK Party administration, more people are realizing this is rather about ‘Turkish State policy.’ Besides, they benefit from Turkey’s acting as an intermediary for the U.S. and Israel. Plus, the fact that Bush administration has delayed its plans to discipline Syria and Iran, by force if necessary, has a soothing effect. The reason for that is, things are still problematical in Iraq and Afghanistan. The White House would not want new adventures before the upcoming presidential elections. This also underlines the efforts to end Bremer’s regime by the summer and hand over the country to the Iraqis themselves.
One might say the election-year-factor during which support from the Greek lobby is needed, has an impact on the Bush administration’s increased pressure for a settlement in Cyprus. Yes, but to a certain extent. Nonetheless, the most effective factor is that, the U.S. regards reaching a settlement in Cyprus issue as an important step in its strategy ‘to keep Turkey within the Western orbit, by making it an EU member.’ Actually, it is not too important for Americans how exactly the problem is going to be solved. At the end of the day, what’s important is a settlement; and a settlement within this year. Because, the U.S. does not want Cyprus become a hurdle in December over the EU decision to give a date for Turkey to start with full membership negotiations.
Washington plans to ‘anchor Turkey to the West,’ as former President Bill Clinton once said. It does not want to leave Turkey ship alone, which has been trying to anchor at a Western port since the Tanzimat [declaration of political reforms in 1839 at Ottoman Empire]. The U.S is concerned that Turkey, sick of wandering in the turbulent seas for so long, could seek shelter at ‘dangerous ports’ like Russia, China and even Iran, if it is rejected at the European customs.
Washington’s vision, on the contrary, is quite different: A Turkey that joins Europe as an agent of the U.S., strengthens the transatlantic alliance, saves both itself and Europe from extreme nationalism and cultural monopolization; becomes a ‘soft power’ in its broad hinterland by gaining social, political and economic stability, and delivers ‘get Westernized and win’ message to the Islamic world…
And here is the doom’s day scenario for the U.S: Europe excludes Turkey, causes a big disappointment which leads to an immense reaction against the whole West among Turkish people, who has hoped so much from EU membership. Such developments eventually pave the way for people in domestic policy arena who say, ‘we need to stop being dependent on the West, and seek new strategic alternatives for ourselves.’
In the light of all these facts, one might assert that the U.S. will anyhow continue pressing on Europe to accept Turkey as a member no matter whether or not the Cyprus issue is solved. However, if a settlement can be found for the Cyprus question, it will make it much easier for Washington to lobby for Turkey. So this year we will all watch an America, which endeavors to find a settlement on Cyprus, perhaps more enthusiastically than ever.
Ambassador Klosson’s statements at the Western Policy Center were like a reiteration of what our sources in the U.S. administration have been telling us in recent times: ‘There is no option other than discussing the Annan Plan. Reaching a settlement before May 1 is important.’ Cyprus summit in Turkish Presidential Palace Cankaya made it clear that Ankara is on the same page with regards to the first point. Statements from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul regarding how much important they view May 1 as a date suggest a positive response to the second call as well. However, both Washington and Ankara know that this is not a realistic deadline. Washington’s goal is to move things forward by applying date pressure in Ankara, which usually acts hesitantly whenever ‘Cyprus settlement’ is mentioned. Ankara, on the other hand, wants to appease Washington by not saying, ‘No’ to May 1. Yet the real deadline for both countries for a settlement in Cyprus is next fall, when presidential elections will be held in the U.S. and discussions on giving Turkey a negotiation date will intensify in Europe.
Apparently, Prime Minister Erdogan will present the new Cyprus plan, which Ankara has been trying to give birth to with great pains, to President Bush on January 28 at the White House meeting, and then return to Turkey. Thereafter, secret and open negotiations process will start in Ankara, Athens, Nicosia, Washington and New York. Let’s hope for the best.
