Cyprus in dangerous waters

Those who think that our pro-solution policy on Cyprus does not constitute a danger to Turkish Cypriots and lifts the biggest obstacle to Turkey’s EU membership are mistaken. Cyprus remains as the most serious problem that will affect the fate of the current government.

The "green line" regulations that were accepted by the EU before the referendum and became applicable recently does not result in the lifting of the sanctions. The possibility of the council rejecting the regulations on trade prepared by the EU Commission is increasing. Countries that are against Turkey’s membership, like Austria, are supporting the Greek Cypriots. Even if the 259 million euros in assistance is approved, the KKTC economy will start to benefit from it starting from early 2006. There is no progress concerning the tourism sector, which will affect the economy immediately, because neither the U.S. nor the EU has begun direct flights to the KKTC. Due to French and Russian objections, the United Nations Security Council cannot make a decision on U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s report that favored the Turkish side. In short, apart from a few diplomatic gestures, the siege on the KKTC continues.

On the other hand, Turkey has to form a customs union with the Greek Cypriot administration. This will mean both our recognition of the Greek Cypriots as the republic of Cyprus and the end of the KKTC.

Greek Cypriots, after preventing the EU from lifting the sanctions on the KKTC, will feel strong enough to ask for more sacrifices in exchange for their approval to Turkey receiving a date to start the accession negotiations. Their objective is the elimination of the Annan plan and Turks being admitted into the south as a minority. The worst (?) possible scenario for them is the approval by the U.N. Security Council of the implementation of the Annan plan and the draft that called for arms embargoes on the island after it is further amended in their favor. Such a decision will remove our guarantorship rights and formally eliminate our relations with Cyprus, before Greek Cypriots approve the Annan plan at a second referendum.

We are at this point as a result of the policy consciously followed by the EU. If Turkey accepts Greek Cypriot demands to get a date to start the negotiations, Turkish Cypriots will be left alone to fend for themselves. If it rejects these demands, our EU membership process will be doomed to failure.

Those countries that are against Turkey’s EU membership must be hoping for Turkey not to be willing to pay this heavy price and forgo its membership objective. If we insist on becoming a member, they will have at least made sure that we paid the price on Cyprus and prepare us for making similar sacrifices in the future.

Sanberk’s proposal for us to start to implement a "public policy," which we have ignored until now, does not seem very realistic. The Turkish side has already implemented this policy. Many commentators not only supported this policy that brought us to now, they went beyond the bounds of proper journalistic conduct in implementing this policy together with the "peace" movement in the KKTC. A very hard choice awaits the government right now. The same commentators will now say: "We gave so much. Let’s also take these final steps," while knowing that the government will shoulder the responsibility in history.

If you don’t create alternative costs, every sacrifice you make will breed new hopes for further sacrifices in the opposite camp, making it harder to resolve the issue.