Cyprus: A Great Leap Forward

This sentence does not only make non-agreement on the plan impossible but also shows Denktas’ trust in Annan, somebody he once regarded as the person who would ruin his long dominance over Cyprus.

How could Rauf Denktas change so radically after 28 years spent insisting that he is right and the rest of the world is wrong?

Who made him change his mind, if not his will?

***

I honestly do not know the answer to the first question but the answer to the second question is:

The Turkish government!

But we also know that the government did not follow exactly the same approach to Cyprus as it did a year ago.

The government’s approach to Cyprus problem was a step forward and then a step backward.

Actually, since the takeover in Nov. 2002, the government did nothing but wait for the results of the December 2003 elections in northern Cyprus.

The Turkish government only started acting after seeing, contrary to its expectations, that the opposition in favor of the Annan plan did not win an open victory.

Even since then the government’s action on the Cyprus problem has been confusing and usually conflicting.

***

Then the real question is: Who made the government change its passive attitude into an active one even if the will was already there?

One can argue that the pressure of gaining EU membership was a dominant factor.

But still the government was very confused, as it had to decide about Cyprus before May 1st, the day Republic of Cyprus becomes a full member of the EU. But the EU won’t be giving any notification of Turkey’s "calendar for membership" until the December 2004.

The government could "give Cyprus" before May but cannot "take EU" until the end of the year.

That would obviously put the government into a very awkward position before a conservative constituency very concerned that "Turkey may bow to her Greek rival for nothing."

***

Therefore, there are some who say that the recent visit of Mr. Prodi is very important. According to them, Mr. Prodi has promised in this visit to the Turkish government that a calendar for membership will be given to Turkey by the end of this year if Turkey takes a positive step in Cyprus before May 1st.

***

There are also those who argue that Mr. Bush has pressed very strongly on Turkey during Mr. Erdogan’s visit to the United States.

The United States does not want a continuing tug-of war between Greece and Turkey, two allies she needs most in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

It is argued that the United States needs Turkey more than she needs Greece at the moment because of the Iraqi war.

Moreover, the U.S. frankly wants to see Turkey in the EU.

This argument follows that in accord with her own policies, the U.S. had to press hard on Turkey and obviously on Greece in solving the Cyprus problem.

***

I do agree with both of these arguments. Both Mr. Prodi and Mr. Bush have played an important role in the government’s last and obviously very strong push on Rauf Denktas.

But there is more than that in my view:

International politics!

***

The government knows very well that it is "not wanted" by hard-line groups within the civilian and military bureaucratic elite of Turkey.

This elite supports the status quo on every issue in order to keep their dominant position.

Thus they reject both a solution in Cyprus and also the membership of Turkey to EU.

Their plan was and still is:

If the Cyprus problem is not solved before May 1st of this year the government may not be able to receive a calendar from EU by the end of the year.

Then all internal conflicts may be blamed on the government and the government may be accused of acting too liberal in vain, giving everything to the West for nothing in return and thus the ruling AK Party may be urged to divide among itself as "the conservatives" and "the liberals."

Once the party is divided the government will be gone!

***

This scenario may look nonsense for those who have grown up in the democratic atmosphere of the West.

But those who knows the current Turkish history have witnessed very similar events in this part of the world.

***

I do not deny that EU membership is a sincere desire of the government. I also acknowledge the role of EU and the U.S. in the recent radical moves made by Turkey on the Cyprus problem — but the government is also well aware that it may yet have to fight for its own existence within the country.