Concerns over Guatemalan democracy after leading party suspended

Guatemala City, Guatemala – Critics fear Guatemala’s fragile democracy may be at risk after the country’s top prosecutor suspended one of the two political parties in August’s presidential run-off.

“The public prosecutor’s office will not rest until there is a rupture of our democracy,” said Marielos Chang, an independent Guatemalan political analyst, echoing widespread concerns about election interference.

The suspension came on Wednesday evening, nearly two and a half weeks after the progressive Seed Movement unexpectedly emerged as one of two victors in the first round of voting.

The results meant that its candidate, Bernardo Arevalo, would face off against Sandra Torres of the right-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party on August 20.

But almost immediately, Arevalo’s political rivals contested the election results. And on Wednesday, hours after the country’s electoral authority certified the vote, his party was suspended, its legal authority to campaign and organise revoked.

For observers like Chang, the move was nothing less than “a direct attack on our political system”.

“Their actions will seek to stop the participation of the party in the second round, putting our democracy at risk,” she said.

Torres herself announced she would suspend her campaign to protest Wednesday’s actions, calling for a level playing field as the second round of voting approaches.

“We want to demonstrate our solidarity with the voters of the Seed party and also with those to came out to vote,” Torres said. “As a candidate, I want to compete under equal conditions.”

Questions of legality

The case against the Seed Movement is being led by Rafael Curruchiche, the controversial head of the Office of the Special Prosecutor Against Impunity.

In a video on Twitter on Wednesday, Curruchiche claimed there were irregularities in the 5,000 signatures the Seed Movement gathered when it formed as a political organisation.

On Thursday morning, Curruchiche’s boss and political ally, Attorney General María Consuelo Porras, ordered a raid on the offices of Guatemala’s election authority to seize voting documents. A second raid is anticipated for the Seed Movement’s headquarters.

Political and constitutional law analysts consulted by Al Jazeera have called the actions illegal.

They point out that the order against the Seed Movement violates article 92 of Guatemala’s Electoral and Political Parties Law, which governs the electoral process and political parties. The article says that a political party cannot be suspended during an election.

“We are witnessing a technical coup,” Luis Mack, a Guatemalan political analyst and professor, told Al Jazeera. “There is a clear and open attempt to alter the popular will expressed in the ballot box.”

The head of Guatemala’s electoral authority, Irna Palencia, has likewise called Thursday’s raid “an invasion”. She told reporters on Thursday that she was not informed in advance of the Seed Party’s suspension.

Doubts over election integrity

The suspension and raid are the latest twists in an already tumultuous presidential race.

Prior to the June 25 election, three candidates were disqualified due to alleged problems with their paperwork.

And in the wake of the vote, Guatemala’s Constitutional Court delayed the certification of the results until a review of the contested ballots could be conducted.

That review had been requested by 10 political parties, including the UNE — which was set to compete against the Seed Movement in the final round.

The court’s inspection, which finished on July 6, ultimately found only minor voting irregularities.

But Curruchiche’s actions have renewed scrutiny of the Seed Movement, which campaigned on an anti-corruption platform.

Both Curruchiche and Attorney General Porras have themselves been accused of corruption. In 2022, the United States Department of State sanctioned Porras for obstruction anticorruption investigations “to protect her political allies and gain undue political favor”.

Curruchiche, meanwhile, was denounced for “disrupting high-profile corruption cases against government officials and raising apparently spurious claims” against the lawyers leading those investigations.

International community responds

The United States has since joined with other members of the international community in expressing concern over the Seed Party’s suspension.

The European Union has said this week’s actions threaten “one of the basic foundations of democracy: respect for the popular will expressed at the polls”.

The Organisation of American States (OAS), meanwhile, reiterated “its deep concern” about the election. It called on Guatemala to adhere to its electoral laws, which bar the suspension of parties in the midst of an election.

“There is a great concern in the international community,” said Ana Maria Mendez, Central America director for the Washington Office on Latin America, a research and advocacy group.

“It is essential that the constitutional order of Guatemala be respected and that the authority of the Supreme Electoral Council be respected regarding the elections,” she told Al Jazeera. “This is an unprecedented crisis in Guatemala.”

Mendez said it was a positive sign that many sectors of society, including businesses, were protesting the Seed Party’s suspension. On Thursday, for example, a leading business council issued a press statement calling on the electoral authority to press for strict adherence to the law.

“But on the other hand, we also see a public prosecutor’s office [being] increasingly authoritarian, acting outside the law with hidden interests,” she added.