Can Turkey enter Northern Iraq?

It has been seen clearly by now that there will be no mass migration of refugees in Northern Iraq. Worries to this effect have been allayed.

That leaves the Kurds’ general approach.

And Kurds’ stance is dependent on the USA. If Washington flashes the green light Kurds can take Kerkuk. In fact, in that case, they can do whatever they like.

The scenes observed on April 9 indicated that Kurds were not exactly under control. These scenes upset Ankara.

Can Turkey stage a military intervention due to these scenes?

I must say that that would be very difficult if not downright impossible.

If they crossed into Northern Iraq Turkish troops would come face to face with the American army. Trying to drive the Kurds out of Kerkuk at the cost of clashing with the USA would amount to plunging this country into an extremely risky situation.

On the other hand, if Washington wants to have a long-term relationship with Turkey, Washington must be extremely careful about the Turkish sensitivities rather than trying to benefit from the fact that Turkey has come under strain.

The real difficulty begins now
On Wednesday the entire world watched the demise of the Saddam administration — albeit symbolically — during a program broadcast live.

That was such a sad scene.

That was not a big crowd. Yet the fact that the Iraqis applaud the American troops, tore up Saddam’s pictures and displayed their joy during the toppling of that statue, greatly upset me.

Maybe because we were brought up differently I watched those scenes with sadness. In every society there are people who would drag on the ground the very person they worshipped only a day ago. But that was too much.

The coalition forces have managed to invade Iraq, a big country, with as little as three divisions. With only 7,000 troops they are about to take over Baghdad, a city with a population of five million.

Can a country surrender so easily?

What happened to the resistance observed during the initial days of the invasion?

That wave of resistance has surprised the world. Now, just when everybody was talking about a revival of Iraqi nationalism, what happened in Iraq on April 9 proved equally astonishing.

Some of us had predicted this end. Some of us, on the contrary, had believed that the Iraqis would repulse the invading forces with the contribution of Turkey as well — since the Turkish Parliament has rejected the U.S. troop deployment motion.

Yet, now it turns out that the Iraqis did not want Saddam. If they did they could have at least slowed down the progress of the invading armies by pouring into the streets even if they did not want to fight. It was no secret that the coalition forces were bound to win in the end but no one had expected the Iraqis to surrender their country at such a "low cost".

Obviously they really did not want Saddam. Furthermore, it turns out that despite all the threats it issued the Baath regime was empty inside. Iraqis’ love for the homeland, their nationalistic feelings, have not been developed adequately.

Under the circumstances what could Turkey and the Turkish society could possibly do?

The real war begins now
This war is not over yet.

The coalition forces have bolstered their positions to a certain extent but they will have to struggle some more to be able to bring the entire country under control.

In general winning a military victory is easy. What is more important is being able to dress the wounds, to win the hearts and to establish a new order that would be acceptable to everybody. That is the biggest task the coalition countries will be faced with.

Your weapons may be very powerful. You can overcome all the obstacles thanks to your technology. But if you cannot establish peace you would still be considered to have been defeated.