Can Chirac endure until the end?

No politician would like to be in French President Jacques Chirac’s shoes right now. The situation he is faced with is not particularly desirable. He is under siege from all quarters for his support of Turkey’s membership.
There is the risk of disappointing Turkey and damaging its relations with the European Union irreparably.
On the other hand, there are also his political battles.
He is alone.
He has neither public support, nor does his own party back him.
The French public is very nervous about Turkey. I fact, public reaction there is unlike anything else in other countries. It might be the aggravation of years of pressure, but for them Turkey represents everything that is bad.
Turkey is seen as being responsible for the Armenian problem.
Turkey is accused of invading Cyprus and mistreating the poor Greek Cypriots.
When it comes to Kurds, it is again Turkey that is responsible.

Turkey is being criticized for torture, mistreatment and limiting non-Muslim minorities’ rights.
I don’t think there has ever been such a narrow-minded campaign anywhere else.
When we add the individuals who think Turkey’s membership would result in a decrease in French influence, those who believe Europe will lose its depth and those who claim that Turkey is just a tool in U.S. hands to these debates, everything gets out of control.

French people have reacted adversely to Turkey becoming a member.
Let’s now take a look at the political side of this story.
Those who want to become president or party leader are all attacking Chirac. Former finance minister, the ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP)’s new leader and the undisputed candidate for the next presidential elections Nicolas Sarkozy is a typical example. The best way to hurt Chirac is to ensure Turkey will not be given a date to start membership negotiations and the rejection of the European Union Constitution.
If the EU Constitution is rejected at the referendum, Chirac’s standing will suffer significantly. He will face a hard challenge at the next presidential elections and will lose his influence over the governing of the country.
One way to confuse the French public before the vote on the EU constitution is to mix it with the negotiations with Turkey and to give the impression that Turkey will become a member soon.
In other words, a serious battle is taking place in France right now.
The president is resisting all these attacks alone.

We don’t see the battle Chirac is waging. His political maneuvers and tactics seem to us like a deception. We think he is toying with us. Actually, he is playing a very clever game.
When he faces trouble, he retreats. For example, he accepts a referendum on Turkey’s membership. He then tells the people that negotiations don’t necessarily have to end with full membership. He tells them that the negotiations will last at least a decade. When the opposition gets even more aggressive, he speaks about a special status.
His message is: “Don’t worry. Turkey will not become a member tomorrow. Maybe the negotiations will not end in an agreement. Turkey may not fulfill the conditions. No matter what happens, it will be up to you to agree to admit Turkey in a referendum.”
However, in his every speech, he says that if Turkey fulfills all the conditions, it has the right to become a member. He says Turkey’s place is in Europe.

If Chirac lacked any vision, if he was a person that did not recognize a historical development when he saw one, he would not have done any of the things he did and could have postponed the start of the negotiations when he faced any serious criticism. He might have chosen his political ambitions over a historical development.
He didn’t.
He showed he was a great statesman.

He told those around him that they carried a historical responsibility and should behave accordingly.
I wonder how long can he keep up this performance.
Until now, President Chirac has displayed a solid attitude towards Turkey. No one knows what may happen tomorrow. No one should forget that every politician has a limit. For example, if the Socialist party next week decides to say “No” to the EU Constitution, things will get a little confused. In order to save the Constitution, he may even call for the negotiations to be postponed until 2005.

We have yet to see how important the start of membership negotiations with Turkey are to the EU. We see all the reactions as an anti-Turkish backlash. Actually, there are only a few within this campaign that are openly anti-Turkish. Domestic politics, political interests, foreign affairs and important balances are involved. Historical prejudices and centuries of misunderstanding are also involved. There are also the misperceptions of the public.
No matter what happens, we first need to realize that not everyone who criticizes us is anti-Turkish.
Let’s just wait and see what the next few weeks will bring.