Cabinet reshuffle may kill presidential system debate

It appears that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has started seriously pondering how to handle a long-expected Cabinet shake-up and has started laying the groundwork for it.

On Tuesday, the prime minister spent hours meeting individually with most of the members of his Cabinet — excluding four ministers — and then accompanied by his wife, went to the residence of Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul. The Erdogans and the Guls met for more than five-and-a-half hours, enjoying a long dinner and — possibly — some good talk about future political plans and the looming Cabinet reshuffle.

The prime minister has been avoiding the issue of restructuring the Cabinet for some time, fearing repercussions within his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). “The prime minister knows better than us. … It’s he who brought us here,” some AKP deputies quipped when asked about it on Wednesday after a rather lengthy parliamentary group meeting. Despite such responses, however, it’s nothing new to see disgruntled deputies in any ruling party after a reorganization. Still, the number of unhappy deputies and the possible impact on balances within that ruling party might turn out to be the determining factors of other political developments.

Erdogan has not hinted at his intention of carrying out a Cabinet reshuffle. “We will do it when the time comes,” he told reporters Tuesday, adding, “When that time comes, we shall do whatever is necessary.” Nothing wrong in these remarks, but the prime minister had a rather “Mr. Know-it-all” type of smile on his face when he made the comment — a sign that could mean, “It’s already under way, dear reporters… You’ve been sleeping.”

According to rumors flying around the political corridors of Ankara, the long-delayed Cabinet shake-up could be announced by the prime minister “any minute” because two important events that Erdogan preferred to see happen before anything else have now occurred. These were the Dec. 17 summit of EU leaders from which Turkey finally secured a date for the Oct. 3, 2005 start of its accession talks, and the other was parliamentary approval of the 2005 budget.

A Cabinet reshuffle now, on the other hand, would mean Erdogan has given up his intention of introducing a presidential system of governance in the country. The prime minister has been exploring the possibility of introducing such a radical change – which would grate on some nerves for obvious reasons in various sectors of the Turkish establishment. If the opposition of these ever-suspicious circles were to be coupled with the “no” votes of some disgruntled AKP deputies in a constitutional amendment, that would bring an end to Erdogan’s political charisma.

Besides, there is already tension between the heavyweights of the AKP. A Cabinet change would seriously hurt the existing balances and could lead to deep cracks that could provide a fertile breeding ground for dissent.
The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) would not support such a radical change that would consolidate Erdogan’s grip over the country; therefore, any Cabinet restructuring before such a constitutional amendment would mean Erdogan has shelved such aspirations for some other spring.

By the way, some wise people in Ankara were claiming on Wednesday that the Cabinet shake-up will happen towards the summer of 2005…