As Philippines’s Marcos addresses nation, economy, Duterte rift loom large

Manila, Philippines – Over the last decade, the arrival of guests at the annual State of the Nation address in the Philippines has come to resemble a Hollywood premiere.

Lawmakers and officials showcase flashy ensembles and gush over their designers as they head inside the halls of Congress to hear the president’s report.

Opposition lawmakers and figures have often used the occasion to brandish dissenting slogans and images on their clothing.

But ahead of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s third address on Monday, the House of Representatives has banned any such attire.

“It is not a day of protest,” House Secretary-General Reginald Velasco, who is tasked with enforcing the orders and decisions of the chamber, told reporters earlier this month.

As Marcos Jr makes his address, tens of thousands of demonstrators are expected to march on Congress in the torrential July rains.

Some 22,000 police officers are being deployed to keep protesters away from parliament.

While Marcos Jr is expected to tout the progress he has made in implementing an economic agenda focused on infrastructure construction and attracting foreign investment, the protests come amid rising public discontent over inflation and slow wage growth.

In an opinion poll released by Pulse Asia Research earlier this month, 72 percent of Filipinos said that controlling the rising cost of basic goods should be the number one priority for the government, ahead of low wages, poverty and joblessness.

In the same poll, Marcos Jr’s trust rating fell five percentage points compared to March, to 52 percent.

The address itself has also drawn criticism due to its cost.

The government has earmarked 20 million Philippine pesos ($342,000) for the preparations, which includes food for more than 2,000 guests, the highest ever for a State of the Nation address.

Renato Reyes Jr of BAYAN, the activist coalition leading the protests, criticised the event’s “tone-deaf pageantry”.

“The real State of the Nation is not what’s being said on that stage but what’s felt in the streets, from the viewpoint of ordinary people,” Reyes told Al Jazeera.

Marcos Jr has pushed infrastructure spending and foreign investment as the key levers to lift the economy.

He has touted his administration’s record of launching 185 flagship infrastructure projects worth $162bn and securing foreign investment pledges worth $14.2bn.

He has pointed to the International Monetary Fund’s economic growth projections for 2024 and 2025 – of 6 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively – which are significantly higher than those of neighbours Malaysia and Indonesia.

Economic analysts have given Marcos Jr a mixed scorecard.

“The Marcos administration was quick to act and I believe we have made a strong start these past two years,” National Economic Development Authority Chief Arsenio Balisacan said last week.

On the other hand, the Makati Business Club last week called for the fast-tracking of reforms in skills development, governance and energy infrastructure to “turn these investment pledges into [a] reality”.

The Ibon Foundation, a think tank, has argued that the economic metrics touted by the government flatter to deceive, with greater infrastructure spending and foreign investment coinciding with manufacturing falling to a 75-year low of 18 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Marcos Jr’s policies are “making pockets of businesses profitable but are not producing broad-based national development,” Sonny Africa, Ibon’s executive director, told Al Jazeera.

Africa added that the state’s “crude measure of economic activity doesn’t say anything about how the gains from that activity are distributed, which is why more direct measures of poverty and hunger are so important”.

This month, the Social Weather Station, an independent polling group, reported that the self-rated poverty level hit 58 percent, a 12-point jump from March, representing an additional 3.1 million families, a 16-year high.

“The Marcos Jr administration excessively hypes economic growth to divert attention from more direct measures of people’s welfare, which clearly show increasing poverty and hunger,” Africa said.

While the year-to-date inflation rate of 3.5 percent falls within the government’s 2-4 percent target, workers have been clamouring for higher wage increases.

Weeks before the State of the Nation address, Marcos Jr approved a 35-pesos ($0.60) hike in the daily minimum wage in Metro Manila.

The Kilusang Mayo Uno (KMU, May First Movement), an umbrella trade union, blasted the rise as an “insult”.

“Workers need liveable wages. What they give us is spare change that’s not even enough for a kilo of rice,” Jerome Adonis, the KMU secretary-general, told Al Jazeera.

Marcos Jr is also facing political risks following the collapse of his alliance with Vice President Sara Duterte, who last month resigned from her posts as education secretary and vice-chair of an anti-insurgency task force.

Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, will notably be absent from Marcos Jr’s address following the disintegration of the pact between the Philippines’s two most powerful political clans.

Temario Rivera, a professor at the University of the Philippines, said the union was doomed from the start because of “competing strategic interests by each clan to dominate”.

Rivera said that former President Rodrigo Duterte always believed his daughter would make a better leader than Marcos Jr.

In his address, Marcos Jr, who has not commented on Duterte’s decision to leave Cabinet except to say it is her decision, is not expected to touch on the growing rivalry with her family.

Meanwhile, the human rights group Karapatan has lamented how past State of the Nation addresses have failed to mention human rights issues.

The Dahas Project at the University of the Philippines, which monitors the drug war, has recorded 712 drug-related killings by state agents and hitmen under Marcos Jr, despite the president’s pledge to turn his predecessor’s deadly campaign against drug dealers “bloodless”.

Last May, Marcos Jr ordered the creation of a “super body” for human rights protections “to sustain and enhance the accomplishments” made under the United Nations Joint Programme for the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights.

Karapatan’s Cristina Palabay said that expecting Marcos Jr to seriously address human rights issues this year would be a “fool’s errand”.

Marcos Jr likes to project a “deodorised picture for the international community while deliberately whitewashing the situation,” Palabay told Al Jazeera.

The Duterte and Marcos clans have also diverged on international allegiances, with the former retaining friendly ties with China and the latter welcoming a greater US military presence on the archipelago.

In his address, Marcos Jr is expected to reiterate support for United States involvement in the Philippines’s territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea.

The Duterte camp, by contrast, has declined to condemn China’s expansive territorial claims or aggressive actions against Philippine vessels.

US and Philippine officials are set to meet on July 30 to discuss the pending General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), a pact that would enhance intelligence-sharing between the sides.

Despite the split between the two weakening their political bases, Rivera said each camp still enjoys strong support from their respective foreign ally.

Rivera said that Marcos Jr has the stronger hand overall because “local political culture deepened by the West Philippine Sea conflict and controversies linked to the activities of some Chinese nationals work against the Dutertes”.

Marcos Jr plays up the traditionally strong pro-US sentiment instilled during the colonial period “in facilitating a largely US-driven military alliance in response”, Rivera said.