Anxious Turkey bolsters troops on Iraqi border

The Second Army, based in the south-eastern city of Malatya, is responsible for security along the sparsely-populated 250-mile border separating Turkey from Iraq. Sources in the region estimate 20,000 troops equipped with with tanks and heavy artillery have already massed on the border.

Turkey’s position remains ambiguous. The army statement carried a significant qualification. "It should not be understood by our people that an operation is about to happen," the general staff said, "or that Turkey is building up to participate in that operation".

US and British planes enforcing the no-fly zone over northern Iraq already use the Incirlik airbase in the south of the country. Despite being a Nato member, Ankara has so far refused to accede to Washington’s demands to accept up to 80,000 US troops in order to open a northern front against Saddam’s forces.

Turkey’s new governing Justice and Development party, elected last November on a wave of popular anger at the previous government’s inability to react to high unemployment, cannot afford to ignore opinion polls showing 88% of Turks opposed to war.

Last week the government hosted a summit of regional leaders in an effort to avoid a war that would inevitably trigger a fresh economic crisis. The meeting pleaded with President Saddam to cooperate with US and UN demands and avoid conflict.

Turkey’s political predicament is complicated by the fact that it fears the Kurdish parties in northern Iraq will seize the oilfields around Mosul and Kirkuk if President Saddam’s regime implodes and declare independence.

Whether or not Turkey joins a US invasion, it is expected to send troops into Iraq. The purpose would be to "protect refugees and prevent the Kurds getting their hands on Mosul and Kirkuk oil", explained a retired general, Armagan Kuloglu.

Last November Turkey revealed plans to set up 12 refugee camps in territory controlled since 1991 by the Kurdish leaders of the de-facto autonomous northern Iraq. The camps would be supervised by the Turkish military.

Several thousand Turkish soldiers have been stationed in northern Iraq since 1996, partially to fight PKK separatists who had fled over the border and, more recently, to protect the Turkish-speaking Turkoman minority which Ankara alleges suffers discrimination.

The imminent threat of military intervention in northern Iraq has already triggered warnings from Kurdish groups that any incursion not aimed solely at toppling Saddam will be met by armed resistance.

Addressing a conference at the Royal United Services Institute this week on the future of Iraq, Hoshyar Zebari, head of international relations for the Kurdistan Democratic party, reassured Turkey, Syria and Iran that the Kurdish enclave would not seek independence in the event of war.

"One danger we face is the possibility of military intervention by our neighbours, particularly Turkey and Iran, in our internal affairs," he said.

"[But] any such military intervention would be resisted by the people of the region and cause severe complications. It would invite further intervention by other countries. Such a prospect would not be in anyone’s interest." His comments underlined the political dangers that could emerge after the fall of Saddam Hussain.

Ankara may ultimately be willing to allow up to 15,000 US troops into the country. A final decision is expected next week and it will have to be ratified by Turkey’s parliament.

The air of fatalism was reinforced as the Turkish state-owned oil company began withdrawing staff from the city of Kirkuk, where they had been drilling for oil. "We are concerned about staff safety and have ordered them to finish the work as soon as possible", the Turkish Petroleum Corporation’s general manager, Kenan Veziroglu, said.