Another source of dispute in the Middle-East water!

Professor Yuksel Inan states that:

In the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, water resources such as the Nile, Jordan, Tigris and Euphrates rivers, are not rich enough to meet all the needs of the regional states. Water is indeed a scarce commodity in the region.

Two major rivers of the Middle East are the Euphrates and Tigris both of which originate in Turkey and flow through territories of Syria and Iraq.

During the construction of Ataturk Dam, Turkey planned to hold 48.5 billion cubic meters of water and promised Iraq in a protocol signed in Damascus on July 17, 1987 that it would release not less than 500 cubic meters per second on average per year. The annual flow released downstream in the years 1996, 1997 and 1998 was around 800 cubic meters per second.

On the other hand, Syria and Iraq in a bilateral agreement made in 1993 and relying on the 1987 protocol, shared the waters of the Euphrates on the ration of 42:58 and registered this document at the U.N.

***

The release of 500 cubic meters per second on average per year from the Euphrates amounts to a potential of 16 billion cubic meters of water per year. This means to release around 50 percent of the potential of the Euphrates since on average it annually carries 30-32 billion cubic meters of water on Turkish territory. For a decision on equitable utilization, Turkey’s contribution of 89 percent to the waters of Euphrates within its own territory should also be underlined, while Syria, by tributaries originating from Turkey, contributes almost 4 billion cubic meters/year (11 percent) and Iraq none. That all amounts to approximately 36 billion cubic meters/year. Syria uses about 3 billion cubic meters of the water and Iraq about 9 billion cubic meters of the water per year, and the rest of the water (20 billion cubic meters/year) flows directly to the Gulf.

***

Turkey’s contribution to the potential of the Tigris, which also rises in Turkey, is about 52 percent of the annual flow and this amounts to 23-25 billion cubic meters/year. Iraq contributes about 48 percent and Syria none to the annual potential of the Tigris (49 billion cubic meters/year). Iraq uses about 12 billion cubic meters of Tigris water and the rest, 28-30 billion cubic meters/year, directly flows to the Gulf.

***

Turkey, as stated above, contributes 30-32 billion cubic meters of water per year to the annual water potential of the Euphrates and 23-25 billion cubic meters of water per year to the annual water potential of the Tigris. In total, Turkey’s annual contribution to both rivers is 53-57 billion cubic meters of water. Turkey’s estimated need for the waters of those two rivers is approximately 25 billion cubic meters of water per year. In other words, Turkey intends to use approximately 45 per cent of its contribution to the waters of those two rivers. The lower riparian states are in conflict with the upper riparian states, Turkey, about the amount of water that will be utilized. In other words, the dispute concerns the material interests of the riparian states.

***

To display this in figures, Turkey’s possible consumption target from the water of Euphrates is 18.42 billion cubic meters per year, while Syria’s is 11.30 billion cubic meters per year and Iraq’s is 23.00 billion cubic meters per year. They amount to a consumption of 52.92 billion cubic meters of water per year. This creates a water deficit of 17 billion cubic meters per year since on average the Euphrates carries 35 billion cubic meters of water each year.

***

The possible demands on the Tigris are a follows:

Turkey 6.87 billion cubic meters per year, Syria 2.6 billion cubic meters per year and Iraq 45 billion cubic meters per year. This amounts to 54.47 billion cubic meters of water per year and means a water deficit of 5.80 billion cubic meters of water per year since the Tigris’s annual water potential is 48.67 billion cubic meters/year.

Turkey can only put into economic use an amount of 98 billion cubic meters of water per year of its surface runoff. In addition to this, it has an underground potential of 12 billion cubic meters of water. At present, it can use only 40 billion cubic meters of this water, and the rest, 70 billion cubic meters of water, is unused. The economy strongly needs this water and its future use is planned.

***

The water quantity per capita is another factor affecting the determination of equitable utilization. Turkey has 1,830 cubic meters of water per capita per year, which is less than Iraq (2,110), but more than Syria (1,420), Israel (300), Jordan (250) and palestine (100).

No middle East country is water rich i.e. none have over 10,000 cubic meters per year.

***

Water may be a prime source of conflict in the area.

Turkey should adjust her "water-polices" according to these figures promptly.

* The views reflected in this article are in general from: Professor Yuksel Inan:

"The Law of International Water Courses and the Middle East" in "Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs" June-August 2000. Volume V-Number 2.