Analysis | How Turkey Tries Balancing East and West as War Rages

During much of the Cold War, Russia was the hostile neighbor that forced Turkey to seek powerful allies to help defend its territory. In the past decade, it’s been courting some of Washington’s adversaries — Russia, China and Iran — while remaining inside NATO. Seeking a major role in world affairs, Erdogan has opened dozens of diplomatic missions in Africa and Latin America and vowed to make Turkey the first NATO member to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a China-led international security group that originally focused on Central Asia but is now expanding toward the Middle East. Russia has become a major economic partner, supplying almost half of Turkey’s natural gas imports and a record 4.7 million tourists to the country last year. In 2019, Turkey acquired Russian S-400 surface-to-air missiles in defiance of its NATO allies. Russian state company Rosatom is building a $20-billion nuclear power station on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast and Turkey’s government has asked it to construct another. 

2. What’s Erdogan’s beef with western governments?

Erdogan has bristled at a series of perceived snubs by his western allies. When the US in 2014 began to supply weapons to Kurdish militants in Syria, who were helping in the effort to combat Islamic State, Turkey — which is fighting its own conflict with affiliated Kurdish separatists — saw the move as a betrayal. In 2016, decades of negotiations on Turkey joining the European Union stalled. Turkey took delivery of the Russian missile system in 2019 after dropping talks to acquire a comparable U.S. weapon, the Patriot, because of Washington’s refusal to share technology. Following the missile deal, the government of US President Donald Trump barred Turkey from buying F-35 fighter jets. Washington officials were worried that the Russian missiles could be used to collect intelligence on the stealth capabilities of the F-35. The US and many of its allies have grown increasingly wary of dealing with Erdogan, who has resorted repeatedly to anti-western rhetoric and accused allied countries of supporting an attempt to topple his government in 2016. Trump’s successor Joe Biden has criticized Erdogan for being authoritarian.  

3. What’s behind the diplomatic pivot?

Erdogan’s Justice and Development party emerged from an anti-western, Islamic political movement that has long accused western nations of thwarting Turkish aspirations for a self-sufficient defense industry and strong economy. Suspicion deepened following the failed coup attempt, which Erdogan said was masterminded by a self-exiled Turkish cleric based in the US. Washington has refused Turkey’s request to extradite him. On a visit to New York in September, Erdogan called for an overhaul of the United Nations Security Council with its five permanent members. “By saying the world is bigger than five, we advocate a multipolar, multicentric, multicultural, more inclusive and fairer global order,” he said. Rather than burning bridges, the idea is to win more leverage with historical allies by showing that Turkey has alternative partners. 

4. What difference has the Ukraine war made?

Erdogan’s doctrine is on display in the Ukraine conflict — supporting the Kyiv government, while cultivating ties with Moscow. He’s condemned Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian provinces and barred Russian ships and aircraft from Turkish-controlled sea and air routes. A company headed by Erdogan’s son-in-law has sold dozens of armed drones to Ukraine. But Erdogan has refused to join sanctions targeting Russia, accused some western allies of provoking the war and warned them not to “underestimate” Russia. He met with Putin four times between July and October and positioned Turkey as a mediator, brokering a deal to allow grain shipments to resume from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and a prisoner swap. 

5. Has Erdogan’s approach benefited Turkey? 

It seems to be providing economic benefits, at least for now. Russia’s investments are helping to shore up Turkey’s troubled economy, which Erdogan needs to stabilize before seeking re-election next year. In August, Erdogan and Putin agreed to expand economic cooperation. Erdogan asked for price discounts for imports of Russian energy, and requested to pay for them in Turkish lira, according to Turkish officials. 

Erdogan’s approach challenges western efforts to forge a unified international front and persuade Moscow to change course on Ukraine. But if the US tries to punish Erdogan, it could jeopardize relations with an important partner in the volatile Middle East. Turkey hosts US nuclear warheads at an air base close to Syria and an early-warning radar that’s part of NATO’s ballistic-missile defense capabilities. It’s also absorbed millions of refugees from the Middle East and Asia and acted as a buffer for that flow to Europe. If Erdogan tilts Turkey toward Russia, he could endanger Turkey’s most important military alliance and scupper a potential deal for Turkey to buy US-made F-16 warplanes and upgrade other military equipment. The US may impose further sanctions on Turkey. The mere threat of such penalties prompted five Turkish banks to abandon a Russian card payment system in September. 

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