Aliyev’s opponent pledges ‘true alliance’ with Turkey

Aliyev, who turns 80 next month, has been rumored to be in poor health for years. He had a heart attack in 1987, and underwent bypass surgery at a Cleveland, Ohio, clinic in 1999. He underwent prostate surgery at the same clinic last February and had a hernia operation there earlier this year.
"A couple of days ago, everybody saw that it is impossible for Aliyev to remain president," Isa Gambar, the leader of Azerbaijan’s biggest opposition party, Musavat, told the Turkish Daily News in a phone interview.

Azerbaijan’s new path
A possible shift of power in Azerbaijan, from Aliyev who has been ruling the country for a decade to his opponents, might have implications in a volatile region plagued by energy wars and ethnic conflicts.
Aliyev, a former KGB general and Communist Party chief, has been subject to criticisms over fraud and oppression against opponents, but his rule has also brought stability to Azerbaijan, which had endured political unrest and war over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh from the late 1980s until the mid-1990s.
But the Musavat leader indicated there would be no major shift in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy that could spark any instability in the region and in ties with regional and global actors.
He said his party was committed to integration with Western military institutions, having closer ties and maintaining an alliance with the United States.
On Turkey, he criticized the current administration of giving "lip service" to the alliance relations with Turkey.
"The Aliyev administration says we are allies but in practice it does not treat Turkey the way an ally should be treated," he said, citing obstacles in Azerbaijan for Turkish business investments.
"We want to develop our relations to a level of true alliance, we do not want to be allies only in rhetoric," Gambar said.
In addition to improvement in economic ties and more intense political dialogue, Azerbaijan might also move to seal a military cooperation deal with Turkey, similar to ones it has already signed with Russia, analysts said.
No change in energy policy
Gambar also said Azerbaijan, under his party’s rule, would be committed to supporting the existing Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline project that, when completed, will transfer Azeri oil to Western markets through Georgia and Turkey.
"There was too much talk and less work done in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan project. It should become operational in the soonest time possible," Gambar said.
Observers estimate an Azerbaijanian foreign policy that is dominated more by nationalist sentiments whose impacts are more likely to be felt over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia.

Though a more active Karabakh policy can be expected under a Musavat rule, said one regional analyst, this would not mean an Azerbaijan-Armenian war.
Gambar confirmed this, saying that the military option was not preferred and that an effective diplomacy would be used to convince Armenians to end their occupation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
"A stronger, more democratic Azerbaijan with a stronger economy, army and diplomacy would solve the problem more easily," he said, though he emphasized his party would "not let Karabakh be taken away from Azerbaijan."
Gambar also said that his party would seek normal relations with its neighbors Russia and Iran, which has a sizable Azerbaijanian population concentrated in its northern regions.
"There are problems with Iran but they will be overcome through dialogue and talks," he said.
Presidential elections are scheduled to take place in October in Azerbaijan but the country’s prime minister, Artur Rasizade, would assume power, under Azerbaijan’s constitution, if Aliyev is incapacitated. A few months ago, the constitution was changed and critics said the changes were aimed at paving the way for Aliyev’s son, Ilham, to take power.
llham Aliyev would assume power if he is appointed as prime minister by his father. But even in this case, elections will have to be held in three months.
Opponents say Aliyev would not spare any effort to make sure that his son will succeed him, emphasizing that there has been a public campaign to promote Ilham both at home and in international platforms, though he has not yet been appointed as prime minister yet.

Critics say Ilham Aliyev’s being the next president is not likely, not only because low public popularity but also because of the unwillingness on the part of the state bureaucracy to work with him.
Gambar, looking sure of an election victory, said the elections would be a turning point for Azerbaijan, marking not only a change of governing party and the president but setting a new path for the country for the coming decades.