A warm autumn approaching

However, let’s first list the points that these groups have in common, despite the disparity of their opinions and expectations.

In December, soon after Turkey gets a date to start European Union membership negotiations, the government’s relations with various organizations (the business world, media, military and civilian bureaucracy, nongovernmental organizations) will noticeably deteriorate.

Early national elections in Turkey some time next year is a great probability.

Despite the perception, the present composition of Parliament has not paved the way for political stability in Turkey.

Let’s now come to the expectations of the various groups mentioned above.

First, the government.

The government, you can also call them the executives of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), categorize the problems they face under three main headings. One: intra-party problems. Two: general political balance. Three: International relations. The executives of the AK party admit the fact that they will soon enter a difficult period. They explain the intra-party problem by noting the rising tension that resulted in Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan scolding the deputies and the planned changes in the government and Parliament, which will occur under such conditions. Whether the senior AK party deputy Bulent Arinc will be re-elected as the parliamentary speaker or not is a problem by itself. If you listen to parliamentary gossip, Arinc wants to keep the post as a springboard to the presidential office. On the other hand, AK Party executives think that Arinc is constantly starting trouble and are trying to find ways to replace Arinc with a more moderate candidate (e.g. whose wife doesn’t wear a headscarf) without causing a crisis. The AK Party leadership, which believes that Arinc played an important part in the rejection of the infamous March 1 bill that allowed U.S. troop deployment in Turkey on the eve of the invasion of Iraq, is committed to resolving this matter. It does not want to be at the same unfortunate spot if a similar development arises.

On the other hand, the AK Party parliamentary group is stuck in between the prime minister, who says: "I am the one that who made you deputies and so you can’t do anything that I don’t approve of," and the advantages of being the ruling party. It has always been hard to surmise how such a parliamentary group might act on a crucial issue, especially when in a secret ballot. That’s why commentators say that certain changes in the government and Parliament may reduce the tension in the group.

The start of a strong opposition movement emerging soon after Turkey gets a date to start membership negotiations with the EU in Dec is listed among the most important problems that might create political turbulence in the near future. Increasing the government influence in the media and supporting the purchase of media organs by groups close to it are among the precautionary measures that could be taken against such a movement. Another tactic that is being voiced is to call an early election after receiving a negotiation date. The AK Party leadership believes it would once again become the leading party, while paving the way for three or four other political parties entering Parliament, in an attempt to reduce political tension. Some believe this will also pave the way for the renewal of the AK Party parliamentary group, whose ability to govern Turkey is highly questionable.

In the international arena, AK Party leadership paints a confused picture, because while great many statements and promises are being made, nothing is resolved yet. Party executives can’t help themselves from asking: "Has the Cyprus issue been resolved? Is everything peaceful in Iraq? Have there been any developments in northern Iraq that would suggest that Turkey is more influential in that area?" The next question that comes to mind is whether the prime minister toughening his stance against Israel produced anything substantial. Prime Minister Erdogan, who backed away from a confrontation over the imam-hatip and headscarf issues, will lose points instead of gaining with his stance against Israel. This opinion is not shared by the other executives of the party, but can’t help themselves from speculating about the meaning of Erdogan’s visit to Iran, before a trip to Israel.

What the other groups in Ankara are thinking will be tackled tomorrow.