A pessimistic scenario for the Middle East

I have three simple reasons for writing a pessimistic scenario:

1) The American military is unable to establish law and order in Iraq. They are simply under-fit for dealing with the occupation since the military’s human capital is very weak in terms of basic education/psychology and also military training.
2) The other influential countries of the world that really feel this war was actually declared against them, i.e., countries like France, Germany, Russia and China, all feel that the United States intends to diminish their share of oil in the area. Thus, these countries have no intention of doing anything in the area unless their share of oil is guaranteed.
3) As a result of the Nov. 2 elections in the United States, the Bush administration feels that it has received even stronger legitimization for increasing and even increasing its pressure in the area.

My pessimistic scenario forecasts that:

1) The elections in Iraq will be held by Jan. 30, 2005 and won by those Shiites who favor Iran and who are cooperating with it in the area. The Shiites, consisting of 60-65 percent of the population in Iraq, will have all the leverage for the elections, but the United States may not be able to see to it that the moderate components of the Shiites win the elections.
2) The moderate Mahmoud Abbas of Palestine may win the presidency but may not be able to contain the terrorist elements within Palestinian forces.
3) Israeli forces may have to react to covert activities carried out by Iran in northern Iraq that aim to manipulate some Kurdish forces against Israel while at the same time Israeli covert activities are also attempting to control other Kurdish forces.
One should also not forget that all elements from abroad and from within Iraq in fact are targeting oil-rich Mosul and Kirkuk in northern Iraq when they talk about the “Iraqi problem.”
Who will get the oil and how much?
The consequences of these forecasts may be summarized in one single word: chaos.
Worse than ever.

Chaos at a level that may prompt us to remember the present days as the “days of tranquility.”

1) All of the Sunni elements but especially those under the influence of Al-Qaeda believe that, due to their Wahhabi way of Islamic belief, the Shiites are even worse enemies of “pure Islam” than the Christians and the Jews. It is impossible for them to accept pro-Iran Shiite domination.
2) Abbas may not be able to contain the terrorist elements within the PLO such as Hamas and may even possibly clash within Palestinian forces.
3) Northern Iraq may also be divided among the various Kurdish forces that will either be backed by Iran or Israel.
4) Worst of all, Iran may be forced to combat Israel openly and the United States may feel "pushed to help Israel.”
I hope that my assumptions and forecasts based on these assumptions simply do not work.