The Cyprus Issue and Turkey’s Role

This made Turkey’s situation and position understandable. The EU got results with its policy of ‘influential threats’ on the Turkish side, but didn’t consider a stick for the Greek Cypriots. The EU had guaranteed EU membership for the Greek Cypriots on May 1 whether a settlement is reached or not. Now Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos and Athens are acting complacently. They’ve rejected Turkey’s sine qua non suggestions, saying that these are contrary to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s plan. At least they have nothing to lose. They are preparing for the May 1 accession ceremonies. Ankara accepted all the EU’s conditions, so now it lacks any power over the Greek Cypriot administration, beyond hoping that the US will do something.

Neither Papadopoulos nor Athens wants a solution before May 1. The greatest risk they might take is bringing Annan’s plan to referendum. The referendum campaign has already started. A poll of Greek Cypriots shows that 61% are opposed to any agreement. These developments put the lie to those who say, ‘The Turkish side is fleeing the table and doesn’t want to negotiate.’ This was one of the goals of the Turkish side. However, Turkey and the TRNC should have sought certain guarantees after these results. For example, what would happen if the Greek Cypriots walk away from the table and reject referendum? In this case would it be guaranteed that Ankara would receive a date for membership talks and the embargo on the TRNC would be lifted? What’s more, is there a plan B to block the Greek Cypriots’ May 1 membership? What would happen if both the Greek and Turkish Cypriot sides were to walk away? In this case, again would Turkey get a date from the EU? Will the Cyprus issue be a condition and hindrance for Turkey’s membership? It seems the domestic and foreign forces and spokesmen who have put pressure on Turkey up to now should do the same to the Greek Cypriot administration.”